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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/08/2012   
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This document was added 08/06/2012.



FEATURE ARTICLE: INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS — 2011-12


ALL MOVEMENTS

In the year ended June 2012, there were a record 29.0 million crossings of Australia's international borders (original series). This represents 1,292 crossings per 1,000 persons of the Australian population. Ten years ago (2001-02) there were 16.9 million border crossings, representing 865 crossings per 1,000 persons of the Australian population. The majority of movements in 2011-12 were short-term (96%). Short-term movements have an intended duration of stay in Australia, or absence from Australia, of less than one year.

Just over half of the total movements in 2011-12 were arrivals to Australia (14.6 million). They were comprised of 8.0 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 6.0 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 652,200 permanent and long-term arrivals.

Just under half of the total movements in 2011-12 were departures from Australia (14.5 million). They were comprised of 8.0 million Australian residents departing short-term, 6.0 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 368,800 permanent and long-term departures.

Short-term resident departures have continued to exceed short-term visitor arrivals since the year ended June 2008 when departures overtook arrivals for the first time in 22 years (see figure below). In the year ended June 2012, short-term resident departures exceeded short-term visitor arrivals by 2.1 million movements, higher than the difference in 2010-11 (1.5 million movements). In the year ended June 2008, resident departures were higher than visitor arrivals by only 70,100 movements.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia: Original series
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia: Original series


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. For more information, see the 1st paragraph of the 'Permanent and Long-Term Movements' section in the Main Features.


Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series. Over the ten year period ending June 2012, trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded long-term growth. Between the beginning of 2007 and mid 2008, the series was relatively stable but has fluctuated from June 2008 to the end of 2009, possibly due to the combined effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the outbreak of swine flu. The highest point in the series was in June 2012 (508,900 movements) while the lowest point was in March 2003 (398,200 movements).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


Seasonally adjusted estimates

Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph above shows that over the ten year period ending June 2012, a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Major events that have coincided with decreases in the seasonally adjusted series include the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in mid-2003 and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq in early 2003. The increase in movements in July 2008 reflects the large arrivals due to World Youth Day held in Sydney.

Original estimates

In original terms, a record 6.0 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2012. The next highest recorded number of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia was in the year ended Jun 2011 (5.9 million). Ten years ago (2001-02), 4.8 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.

The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten source countries (based on 2011-12) for short-term visitor arrivals. For each of the years, New Zealand was the largest contributor of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia (19.9% in 2011-12). Of the top ten source countries, short-term visitor arrivals from China recorded the strongest growth over the period with contributions of 3.6% in 2001-02 and 9.8% in 2011-12.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

2001-2002
2006-2007
2011-2012
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Source countries(a)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

New Zealand
787.7
16.5
1 115.1
19.8
1 191.4
19.9
UK,CIs and IOM(b)
627.1
13.2
733.3
13.0
597.0
10.0
China
172.3
3.6
338.4
6.0
583.1
9.8
United States of America
424.4
8.9
455.4
8.1
464.3
7.8
Japan
659.2
13.8
610.2
10.8
344.3
5.8
Singapore
295.8
6.2
263.5
4.7
319.6
5.3
Malaysia
154.3
3.2
157.1
2.8
243.1
4.1
Korea, South
181.1
3.8
270.8
4.8
199.3
3.3
Hong Kong
148.6
3.1
153.1
2.7
168.8
2.8
India
47.3
1.0
88.0
1.6
152.4
2.5
All other countries
1 270.6
26.6
1 456.5
25.8
1 717.2
28.7
Total
4 768.3
100.0
5 641.2
100.0
5 980.5
100.0

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates for 2010-11.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


Age and sex

When 2001-02 and 2011-12 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term visitor arrivals remained the 25-29 years age group (contributing 12.1%, and 11.2% respectively). More recently, the age distribution of visitors arriving has been older, with the proportion of travellers within the 50-69 years age group increasing from 24.5% in 2001-02 to 28.1% in 2011-12. Conversely, the proportion travelling in the 25-49 years age group decreased from 49.3% in 2001-02 to 45.1% in 2011-12. The median age of all short-term visitor arrivals increased from 37.5 years in the year ended June 2002, to 39.4 years in the year ended June 2012.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

2001-2002
2006-2007
2011-2012
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age group (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
95.3
2.0
117.6
2.1
130.7
2.2
5-9
119.4
2.5
139.1
2.5
135.3
2.3
10-14
163.4
3.4
190.5
3.4
177.5
3.0
15-19
250.9
5.3
321.3
5.7
298.7
5.0
20-24
446.7
9.4
509.2
9.0
595.4
10.0
25-29
576.6
12.1
599.3
10.6
667.2
11.2
30-34
511.5
10.7
551.2
9.8
563.4
9.4
35-39
449.2
9.4
513.1
9.1
482.2
8.1
40-44
417.3
8.8
503.0
8.9
482.3
8.1
45-49
395.8
8.3
483.1
8.6
500.4
8.4
50-54
406.1
8.5
469.7
8.3
507.8
8.5
55-59
326.6
6.8
443.4
7.9
480.9
8.0
60-64
260.1
5.5
339.2
6.0
416.3
7.0
65-69
174.0
3.6
237.8
4.2
276.3
4.6
70-74
101.1
2.1
126.4
2.2
154.5
2.6
75 and over
74.1
1.6
97.5
1.7
111.7
1.9
Total
4 768.3
100.0
5 641.2
100.0
5 980.5
100.0



For male short-term visitors arriving from overseas, the peak age group moved from 30-34 years in 2001-02 (11.5%) to 25-29 years in 2011-12 (10.5%). For females the peak age group of 25-29 years remained constant while the contribution fell from 13.2% in 2001-02 to 11.9% in 2011-12. The median ages of males and females increased to 40.2 years and 38.3 years respectively in the year ended June 2012. The comparative medians were 38.5 years and 36.1 years in the year ended June 2002.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age and Sex
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia—Age and Sex


More males than females arrive for short-term stays in Australia. The short-term visitor arrival sex ratio (the number of male arrivals per 100 female arrivals) was 107 males in 2001-02 and 105 males in 2011-12. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 35-39 years age group in 2001-02 (143 males) and in the 40-44 years age group in 2011-12 (140 males). The lowest sex ratios were recorded in both the 15-19 years and 20-24 years age groups in 2001-02 (each 79 males). In 2011-12 it was only in the 15-19 years age group (82 males per 100 female arrivals). The following graph illustrates, for short-term visitor arrivals, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Sex ratios by age
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia—Sex ratios by age


Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2012, the most frequently cited main reason for journey to Australia by short-term visitor arrivals was holiday (44%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (12%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2002 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (48%), visiting friends and relatives (18%) and business (9%). The median duration of stay for all short-term visitor arrivals has decreased from 11 days in 2001-02 to 10 days in 2011-12.

State of stay

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 38% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2012. The other state/territory shares were Queensland with 24%, Victoria 22%, Western Australia 11%, South Australia 3%, and Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory 1% each. In 2001-02, the intended state of stay proportions for short-term visitor arrivals were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 40%, Queensland 28%, Victoria 17%, Western Australia 9% and South Australia 2% of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia.


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. The trend estimate series for short-term resident departures has shown long-term growth over the last 10 years ending June 2012. From mid 2002 to mid 2003 the trend series, while fluctuating, changed little. From mid 2003 to June 2012, the series mainly recorded strong long-term growth. The high point in the series was June 2012 (688,300 movements) while the low point was in November 2002 (285,900 movements). Breaks were recorded in the series at October 2002, December 2003, October 2005, December 2006 and April 2009. For more information, see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


Seasonally adjusted estimates

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. During the ten years ending June 2012, the seasonally adjusted estimate has mainly recorded strong growth. From the beginning of the period through to late 2003, movements remained relatively stable, with one exception coinciding with the emergence of SARS in mid 2003. Additional factors that may have contributed to short-term resident departures remaining stable during this period include the bombing in Bali in October 2002 and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq in early 2003. Strong movement in the series from early 2008 onwards coincided with the Global Financial Crisis, the high Australian dollar, cut-price air fares and the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and March/April 2009.

Original estimates

In original terms, there was a record 8.0 million short-term resident departures in the year ending June 2012. This compared with 7.4 million in the year ending June 2011. Ten years ago (2001-02), there were 3.4 million residents departing Australia short-term.

The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten destination countries (based on 2011-12) for short-term resident departures. While the proportion decreased for New Zealand when 2001-02 (17.6%) and 2011-12 (13.9%) were compared, it remained the largest contributor to short-term resident departures from Australia for each of the selected periods.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

2001-2002
2006-2007
2011-2012
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Destination countries(a)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

New Zealand
592.2
17.6
883.3
17.2
1 117.3
13.9
Indonesia
270.9
8.0
231.4
4.5
910.6
11.3
United States of America
276.0
8.2
450.7
8.8
819.1
10.2
Thailand
163.4
4.9
331.7
6.5
600.2
7.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
308.0
9.1
415.2
8.1
486.8
6.1
China
121.3
3.6
268.5
5.2
380.5
4.7
Fiji
113.3
3.4
193.6
3.8
339.2
4.2
Singapore
163.2
4.8
208.3
4.1
286.5
3.6
Malaysia
109.5
3.3
172.5
3.4
257.3
3.2
Hong Kong
142.0
4.2
200.0
3.9
228.9
2.8
All other countries
1 108.0
32.9
1 772.1
34.6
2 610.0
32.5
Total
3 367.9
100.0
5 127.1
100.0
8 036.5
100.0

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates for 2011-12.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


Age and sex

When 2001-02 and 2011-12 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term resident departures changed from 30-34 years in 2001-02 (10.5%) to 45-49 in 2010-11 (9.4%). More recently, the age distribution of Australian residents travelling overseas has been older, with the proportion travelling in the 50-69 years age group increasing from 25.4% in 2001-02 to 28.7% in 2011-12. Conversely, the proportion travelling in the 25-49 years age group decreased from 50.7% in 2001-02 to 45.3% in 2011-12. The median age of all short-term resident departures increased from 39.9 years in the year ended June 2002, to 40.5 years in the year ended June 2012.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

2001-2002
2006-2007
2011-2012
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age groups (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
101.2
3.0
158.6
3.1
292.2
3.6
5-9
102.7
3.0
151.8
3.0
256.6
3.2
10-14
117.6
3.5
183.3
3.6
293.7
3.7
15-19
144.1
4.3
213.9
4.2
373.7
4.7
20-24
219.1
6.5
324.5
6.3
563.8
7.0
25-29
315.0
9.4
446.9
8.7
745.4
9.3
30-34
355.1
10.5
467.6
9.1
727.5
9.1
35-39
338.0
10.0
478.1
9.3
688.9
8.6
40-44
349.2
10.4
502.7
9.8
717.3
8.9
45-49
351.9
10.4
522.1
10.2
758.0
9.4
50-54
343.8
10.2
516.6
10.1
749.7
9.3
55-59
255.9
7.6
464.4
9.1
661.1
8.2
60-64
158.7
4.7
316.7
6.2
547.7
6.8
65-69
97.9
2.9
189.1
3.7
347.7
4.3
70-74
63.1
1.9
100.4
2.0
182.5
2.3
75 and over
54.8
1.6
90.3
1.8
130.5
1.6
Total
3 367.9
100.0
5 127.1
100.0
8 036.5
100.0



For male Australian residents departing overseas for a short-term stay abroad, the peak age group moved from 40-44 years in 2001-02 (11.6%) to 45-49 years in 2011-12 (10.1%). For females, the peak age group of 25-29 was younger than for males for both 2001-02 and 2011-12 (10.5% and 10.0% respectively). The median age of males and females increased to 41.4 years and 39.4 years respectively in the year ended June 2012. The comparative medians were 40.9 years and 38.2 years in the year ended June 2002.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Age and Sex
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia—Age and Sex


The disparity between the number of Australian male and female residents departing Australia for short-term stays abroad is decreasing. The short-term resident departures sex ratio (the number of male departures per 100 female departures) was 120 males in 2001-02 compared with 112 males in 2011-12. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 40-44 years age group in 2001-02 (156 males) and the 40-44 years and 45-49 years age groups in 2011-12 (129 males).

The lowest sex ratios were in the 15-19 years age groups in both 2001-02 (80 males) and in 2011-12 (84 males). The following graph illustrates, for short-term resident departures, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Sex ratios by age
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia—Sex ratios by age


Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2012, the most frequently cited main reason for journey from Australia by short-term resident departures was holiday (57%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (23%) and business (10%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2002 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (44%), visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (16%). The median duration of stay for all short-term resident departures has decreased from 15 days in 2001-02 to 14 days in 2011-12.

State of residence

The largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2012 were the most populous states. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (35%), followed by Victoria (25%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (15%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%), and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (1% each). In 2001-02, the state/territory of residence proportions for all short-term resident departures were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 40%, Queensland 15% and Western Australia 12% of all short-term resident departures from Australia in 2001-02.

Movement rates

In the year ending June 2012, there was considerable variation in the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (503 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (398), New South Wales (385), the Northern Territory (375), Victoria (355), Queensland (305), South Australia (225) and Tasmania (168). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 357 movements per 1,000 population.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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