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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/03/2008   
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FEATURE ARTICLE: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENTS, JAPAN


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Japan. While there have been monthly fluctuations and short-term recoveries in the ten years to January 2008, the trend estimate has overall been in long-term decline. The high point in the series was January 1998 (65,700 movements) and the low point was the current month (January 2008, or 42,400 movements). Since January 1998 the series has fallen 35%, with a 26% fall being recorded between January 2006 and January 2008. Currently, the number of movements in January 2008 is 17% lower than in January 2007.


The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending January 2008, two large decreases were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from Japan. These decreases coincided with the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States of America and the outbreak of SARS in mid-2003. Both of these events contributed to short-term downturns in international travel.

JAPAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: JAPAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, in the year ended January 2008 short-term visitor arrivals from Japan represented 10.0% (562,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. This proportion was lower than in the previous 12 months ended January 2007 (11.6%, or 638,600 movements) and in the 12 months ended January 1998 (18.9%, or 814,600 movements).


In the year ended January 2008, the highest proportion of short-term visitor arrivals from Japan stated holiday (78%) as the main reason for journey, followed by business and visiting friends and relatives (6% each). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitors from Japan was 32 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 6 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).


The states of Queensland (58%), New South Wales (24%) and Victoria (8%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Japan in the year ended January 2008. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (27%) and Victoria (18%).



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Japan. During the ten year period ending January 2008, the trend estimate series has, while fluctuating, increased steadily. There were long periods of relative stability with the series showing strong and consistent growth from mid-2007. The high point in the series was the current month (January 2008, or 13,500 movements) and the low point was in April 1998 (4,500 movements). Since January 1998 the series has increased nearly threefold. Currently, the number of movements is 31% higher than in January 2007.

JAPAN, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: JAPAN, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, in the year ended January 2008 short-term resident departures to Japan represented 2.4% (134,800 movements) of all short-term resident departures from Australia. This was higher than the proportion for the previous 12 months ended January 2007 (2.1%, or 103,400 movements) and for the 12 months ended January 2008 (1.9%, or 55,000 movements).


In the year ended January 2008, the highest proportion of short-term resident departures to Japan stated holiday (51%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives and business (17% each). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Japan was 36 years (41 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 14 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).


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