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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Analysis of short-term resident departures for Japan, as seen below, shows a trend break in the series due to the major earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 and subsequent radiation exposure incidents. For Indonesia, the graph shows the introduction of breaks in series due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of 12 October 2002 and then again in December 2003 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the first bombings. Further breaks were inserted in October 2005 due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the subsequent Bali bombings of 1 October 2005, then again in December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the second bombings. The graph for South Africa shows, in the seasonally adjusted and trend series, the effect of South Africa hosting the 2012 FIFA World Cup from 11 June to 11 July 2010.
Breaks in series for the following graphs have been inserted from April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. For example, the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009, and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanation Notes Paragraph 25.
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