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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/03/2009   
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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For Viet Nam the graph shows, for the trend series, strong growth from early 2003 to mid 2008, followed by a subsequent decline. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

USA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: United States of America


VIET NAM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: VIET NAM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals


JAPAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: Japan



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for Germany shows, in the seasonally adjusted series, the effect of Germany hosting the 2006 FIFA World Cup (9 June to 9 July). For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and another break in the trend series was introduced. Strong growth resulted in the insertion of a further break in the trend series from December 2006.

USA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: USA, Short-term Resident Departures


GERMANY, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: GERMANY, Short-term Resident Departures


INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: Indonesia



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