3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Jul 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/08/2007   
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ISSUE Release Date
August 2007 18 September 2007
September 2007 17 October 2007
October 2007 16 November 2007
November 2007 18 December 2007
December 2007 17 January 2008
January 2008 18 February 2008


The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for July 2007 will be released on 4 September 2007.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See Explanatory Note 6.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See Explanatory Note 10.

Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).

Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.


There are no changes in this issue.


Annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis: The annual reanalysis of short-term visitor arrivals will be undertaken after the release of this issue. Any revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates series will be incorporated with the release of August 2007 data.

Introduction of ARIMA modelling techniques: Recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The Overseas Arrivals and Departures collection will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted short-term overseas arrivals and departures estimates.


For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Alex Wahlin on Canberra (02) 6252 6762.