3106.0 - Demography News, Jun 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/07/2003   
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The Demography Section of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has commenced work on the 2002-2101 population projections for Australia, the states and territories, and for each capital city and balance of state/territory. The projections for Australia will go out to the year 2101 while the projections for the state/territory and the capital city/balance to 2051. The Population Projections, Australia (cat. no. 3222.0) publication and associated electronic data are scheduled for release on 26 August 2003.

The ABS uses the cohort-component method for these projections, which requires various assumptions to be made on future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration. This method begins with a base population for each sex by single years of age and advances it year by year by applying these assumptions. These assumptions are formulated on the basis of past demographic trends, both in Australia and overseas.

The process of developing the population projection assumptions involves consultation with various private and government departments at both the national and state/territory level to ensure relevance of the projections to users. This consultation occurred during March/April 2003 and some assumptions were revised. These assumptions are now final and work has commenced on projecting the populations by age and sex.

For more information please contact Katrina Phelan on (02) 6252 6573 or katrina.phelan@abs.gov.au