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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/12/2009   
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POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2009 was 21,875,000 persons, an increase of 443,100 since 30 June 2008 and 95,800 persons since 31 March 2009. The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2009, was 2.07%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration.


Natural Increase

Natural increase for the 12 months ended 30 June 2009 was 157,800 persons, an increase of 8.4% (or 12,200 persons) on the natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2008 (145,600 persons).

BIRTHS

The preliminary estimate for births during the year ended 30 June 2009 (300,900) was 4.6% higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2008 (287,700).

The total fertility rate (TFR) for the year ended 30 June 2009 was 1.978 babies per woman.

DEATHS

The preliminary estimate for deaths during the year ended 30 June 2009 (143,100).

The standardised death rate (SDR) for the year ended 30 June 2009 was 5.90 deaths per 1,000 persons.

The infant mortality rate (IMR) for the year ended 30 June 2009 was 4.20 infant deaths per 1,000 live births which is close to the lowest recorded.


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2009, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 285,300 persons. This was the difference between 510,600 overseas arrivals that were added to the population (NOM arrivals) and 225,200 overseas departures that were subtracted from the population (NOM departures). The contribution made to population growth by NOM (64.4%) was higher than that of natural increase (35.6%).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident populations for the states and territories at 30 June 2009 were as follows: New South Wales 7,100,000, Victoria 5,428,000, Queensland 4,407,000, South Australia 1,623,000, Western Australia 2,237,000, Tasmania 502,600, the Northern Territory 224,800 and the Australian Capital Territory 351,200.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 30 June 2009. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth rate (3.0%), followed by Queensland (2.6%), the Northern Territory (2.3%), Victoria (2.1%), New South Wales (1.7%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.6%), South Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (1.0%).


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2009, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

Population Components as a proportion of total growth(a) - Year ended 30 June 2009
Graph: Population Components as a proportion of total growth(a)—Year ended 30 June 2009



Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, natural increase was the major component of population growth in the Northern Territory at 56.2% (2,800 persons), the Australian Capital Territory at 54.2% (3,100 persons) and Tasmania at 50.1% (2,600 persons) for the year ended 30 June 2009.

BIRTHS

The total number of births registered for the 12 months ended 30 June 2009 rose by 4.6%. This increase was driven by New South Wales, with an 11.9% increase, and Queensland, with an 11.2% increase. The remaining states and territories remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations.

DEATHS

In all states and territories the number of deaths were relatively stable for the year ending 30 June 2009 in comparison with the previous year. The largest percentage differences were found in the Northern Territory with a decline of 4.5% and the Australian Capital Territory with an increase of 3.0%.


Net Overseas Migration

The contribution of NOM, as illustrated in the above graph, was the major component of population growth in South Australia at 88.2% (17,100 persons) for the year ended 30 June 2009, followed by New South Wales at 74.0% (85,500 persons). This was followed by Victoria at 69.2% (78,800 persons), Western Australia at 65.1% (42,800 persons), the Australian Capital Territory at 60.4% (3,400 persons) and Queensland at 48.2% (54,400). Tasmania, the Northern Territory also experienced positive net overseas migration.


Net Interstate Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2009, Queensland experienced the highest positive net interstate migration with a gain of 18,400 persons. Other states and territories that experienced positive net interstate migration were Western Australia (4,800 persons), the Northern Territory (750 persons) and Tasmania (670). Victoria reversed the year ending 30 June 2009 trend and recorded a increase of 700 persons. Negative net interstate migration was experienced by New South Wales with a loss of 19,800 persons, South Australia 4,700 persons and the Australian Capital Territory 820 persons.

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 30 June 2009
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—Year ended 30 June 2009



International Comparison

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2009, Australia's population growth rate (2.1%) was almost double that of the world (1.1%). After a recent increase in growth, Australia is now growing at a faster rate than many countries including the Philippines (2.0%), Papua New Guinea (1.7%), Malaysia (1.6%), India and Hong Kong (both 1.4%), Indonesia (1.2%), Viet Nam and Sweden (both 1.1%), Unites States of America (1.0%), Canada (0.9%), China (0.6%), France (0.5%), the United Kingdom (0.3%) and Republic of Korea (0.2%). The populations of Greece, Italy and New Zealand all failed to register a significant growth rate (both 0.0%). Further, Japan experienced a decrease in its population (-0.2%). One country that experienced faster growth than Australia was Singapore (2.2%).

According to figures from the US Bureau of Census' International Data Bank of 227 countries, Australia's population ranked 55th in 2009 (stable from 55th in 2008) and is projected to rank 59th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.66 billion people compared with 1.42 billion in China.

Population, Growth Rate and Rank(a) - Summary

ESTIMATED POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
2008
2009
Growth Rate
2050
2009
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
21
22
2.1
34
55
59
Canada
33
34
0.9
41
36
45
China (exl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 330
1 339
0.6
1 424
1
2
France
64
64
0.5
70
21
23
Greece
11
11
-
10
75
96
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
1.4
6
100
116
India
1 141
1 157
1.4
1 657
2
1
Indonesia
238
240
1.2
313
4
4
Italy
58
58
-
50
23
34
Japan
127
127
-0.2
94
10
18
Korea, Republic of
48
49
0.2
43
25
41
Malaysia
25
26
1.6
43
46
42
New Zealand
4
4
-
5
124
121
Papua New Guinea
6
6
1.7
10
106
95
Philippines
96
98
2.0
172
12
11
Singapore
5
5
2.2
5
117
128
Sweden
9
9
1.1
9
88
102
United Kingdom
61
61
0.3
64
22
26
United States of America
304
307
1.0
439
3
3
Viet Nam
88
89
1.1
111
13
15
World
6 691
6 768
1.1
9 317
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, our closest neighbours and trading partners.
Source: Australian estimates, this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections, Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0); selected country and world estimates and projections, US Bureau of Census, International Data Base (IDB).



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