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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2007 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2008   
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AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2007 was 21,097,100 persons, an increase of 318,500 since 30 September 2006 and 79,900 persons since 30 June 2007. The increase for the year ended 30 September 2007 is the largest recorded for a 12 month period since the ERP concept was introduced in 1971 (see paragraphs 4 to 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail).


The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 September 2007, at 1.53% was the fastest annual growth rate for a year ended 30 September since 1989 (at 1.56%).



PRELIMINARY DATA

Due to the collection and estimation methods applied to produce preliminary statistics from the components of population change, users should exercise caution when analysing and interpreting the most recent quarterly estimates.



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (net permanent and long-term movement).



Natural Increase

Natural increase for the 12 months ended 30 September 2007 was 139,400 persons, an increase of 7.4% (or 9,600 persons) on the natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2006 (129,800 persons). However, changes in registration application and processing trends may have impacted on the September quarter 2007 data (see Notes on page 2).


BIRTHS


The preliminary estimate for births during the year ended 30 September 2007 (278,500) was 5.8% higher than the figure for the year ended 30 September 2006 (263,200). Births in the year ended 30 September 2007 was the highest ever recorded for a year ending 30 September.


DEATHS


The preliminary estimate for deaths during the year ended 30 September 2007 (139,200) was the highest ever recorded for a year ending 30 September.



Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 September 2007, Australia recorded a preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate of 179,100 persons. The contribution made to population growth by NOM (56.2%) was twelve percentage points higher than that of natural increase (43.8%).


AN IMPROVED METHOD FOR CALCULATING NOM


The ABS has introduced an improved method for estimating NOM. This method has been used for September quarter 2006 onwards. Preliminary NOM estimates are based on international movement data for the reference quarter, adjusted by information derived from travellers with the same characteristics from the corresponding quarter two years earlier. Final NOM estimates for the four quarters of 2006-07 (scheduled for release in March 2009) will be based on the actual duration of stay in Australia and overseas of international travellers.


The time series using the previous method for calculating NOM finishes at June quarter 2006. Estimates from this past time series and the current time series are not comparable. For further information see Information Paper: Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, 2006 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.003); Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note Measuring Net Overseas Migration, Method Used September Quarter 2001 to June Quarter 2006 in the March quarter 2007 issue of this publication (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident populations for the states and territories at 30 September 2007 were as follows: New South Wales 6,909,000, Victoria 5,226,000, Queensland 4,201,000, South Australia 1,588,000, Western Australia 2,119,000, Tasmania 494,500, the Northern Territory 216,500, and the Australian Capital Territory 340,300.


All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 30 September 2007. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth rate (2.4%), followed by Queensland and the Northern Territory (2.2%), Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (1.5%), New South Wales and South Australia (1.0%) and Tasmania (0.8%).



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.


Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2007, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a) - Year ended 30 September 2007
Graph: Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)—Year ended 30 September 2007




Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, natural increase was the major component of population growth in Tasmania at 68.9% (2,700 persons), the Northern Territory at 62.5% (2,900 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory at 58.3% (3,000 persons) for the year ended 30 September 2007 (see Notes on page 2).


BIRTHS


The number of births registered for the 12 months ended 30 September 2007 showed an increase in birth registrations in all states, with Tasmania recording the largest percentage increase of 9.7%.


DEATHS


The number of deaths registered for the 12 months ended 30 September 2007 showed an increase in death registrations in all states, with the Northern Territory recording the largest percentage increase of 9.9%.



Net Overseas Migration

Net overseas migration for the year ended 30 September 2007, as illustrated in the previous graph, was the major component of population growth in South Australia at 80.1% (12,800 persons). This was followed by New South Wales at 75.0% (53,500 persons), Victoria at 61.7% (48,200 persons), Western Australia at 56.2% (27,400 persons) and Queensland at 37.2% (33,700 persons). All other states and territories experienced positive net overseas migration.



Net Interstate Migration

Estimates of quarterly interstate migration showed there were 356,400 persons moving interstate within Australia for the year ended 30 September 2007. Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia recorded larger increases from net interstate migration when compared to the previous year ended 30 September. New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria experienced a larger loss from net interstate migration whereas Tasmania recorded a smaller loss. Over the same period, the Northern Territory changed from negative to positive net interstate migration.

Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 30 September 2007
Graph: Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—Year ended 30 September 2007



For the year ended 30 September 2007, Queensland experienced the highest positive net interstate migration with a gain of 27,000 persons. Other states and territories to experience a positive net interstate migration were Western Australia (4,200 persons) the Australian Capital Territory (1,300 persons) and the Northern Territory (380 persons). Negative net interstate migration was experienced by New South Wales (26,700 persons), South Australia (3,900 persons), Victoria (2,100 persons) and Tasmania (a small 50 persons).

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