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ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2017


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2017 was 24,598,900 people. This is an increase of 388,100 people since 30 June 2016 and 87,200 people since 31 March 2017.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2017 was 1.6%.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population is comprised of: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2017 was higher from NOM (63.2%) than from natural increase (36.8%).

Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2017 was 142,700 people, a decrease of 7.5%, or 11,600 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2016 (154,400 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2017 (303,000 births) decreased by 8,700 births from the year ended 30 June 2016 (311,700 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2017 (160,300 deaths) increased by 2,900 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2016 (157,400 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2017, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 245,400 people. This was 27.1% (52,400 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2016 (193,000 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 11.5% (56,900 people) between the years ended 30 June 2016 (496,000 people) and 30 June 2017 (552,900 people).

NOM departures increased by 1.5% (4,500 people) between the years ended 30 June 2016 (302,900 people) and 30 June 2017 (307,500 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the June quarter 2017 (47,900 people) was 39.0% (13,500 people) higher than the June quarter 2016 (34,300 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 30 June 2017 was as follows:

• New South Wales 7,861,100;
• Victoria 6,323,600;
• Queensland 4,928,500;
• South Australia 1,723,500;
• Western Australia 2,580,400;
• Tasmania 520,900;
• Northern Territory 246,100; and
• Australian Capital Territory 410,300.

Positive population growth occurred in all states and territories in the year ended 30 June 2017. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.3%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2017, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2017, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.




Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2017 decreased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory (up 1.8%) and Victoria (up 1.1%).

The largest percentage decreases was recorded in New South Wales, decreasing by 7.7% (7,700 births). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (4.0%), Tasmania (3.5%), Western Australia (2.6%), South Australia (1.6%) and Queensland (0.6%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2017 increased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory and Tasmania (both down 2.1%).

The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 7.0% (100 deaths). This was followed by Queensland (3.3%), Western Australia (2.9%), South Australia (2.2%), Victoria (1.9%) and New South Wales (0.8%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 June 2017. Compared with the previous year, NOM increased in all states and territories. The largest percentage increase in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 58.0% (300 people). This was followed by Queensland which increased by 44.3% (9,600 people), the Australian Capital Territory by 42.9% (800 people) and New South Wales which increased by 31.4% (by 23,600 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 30 June 2017 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 1.4%). The largest percentage increase in NOM arrivals was recorded in New South Wales at 16.2% (28,400 people). This was followed by Victoria (up 14.3%), the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (both up 12%), Queensland (up 7.9%), South Australia (up 3.2%) and the Northern Territory (up 1.5%). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 30 June 2017 increased in Victoria (up 5.7%), New South Wales (up 4.8%), Tasmania (up 4.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 2.6%) and South Australia (up 2.1%). The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Queensland at 4.6%. This was followed by the Northern Territory (down 4.5%) and Western Australia (down 4.1%). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 June 2017, Victoria, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains. Queensland had the highest net gain with 17,400 people, up from 11,600 people in the year ended 30 June 2016. This was followed by Victoria (17,200 people), the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (both 700 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (14,900 people), Western Australia (11,700), South Australia (5,900 people) and the Northern Territory (3,500 people). For more information, see table 17.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2017, Australia's population growth rate of 1.6% was above that of the world at 1.1%. Australia is growing at a faster rate than every selected country except for Papua New Guinea (2.1%). The Philippines and Singapore were the next fastest growing countries (both at 1.5%) followed by Malaysia (1.4%) and South Africa (1.3%).

According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 53rd highest in the world in 2017 and is projected to rank 56th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.7 billion people compared with 1.4 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK (a)(b), Summary
	ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION			PROJECTED POPULATION	RANK
	2016	2017	Growth Rate	2050	2017	2050
Selected Countries	million	million	%	million	no.	no.
Australia	24	25	1.6	38	53	56
Canada	36	37	0.9	45	38	46
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)	1 404	1 410	0.4	1 364	1	2
France	65	65	0.4	71	22	28
Greece	11	11	-0.2	10	82	98
Hong Kong (SAR of China)	7	7	0.8	8	104	111
India	1 324	1 339	1.1	1 659	2	1
Indonesia	261	264	1.1	322	4	5
Italy	59	59	-0.1	55	23	36
Japan	128	127	-0.2	109	11	17
Korea (South)	51	51	0.4	50	27	41
Malaysia	32	32	1.4	42	45	50
New Zealand	5	5	1.0	6	125	126
Papua New Guinea	8	8	2.1	14	101	86
Philippines	103	105	1.5	151	13	13
Singapore	6	6	1.5	7	115	120
South Africa	56	57	1.3	73	25	27
Sweden	10	10	0.7	12	89	93
United Kingdom	66	66	0.6	75	21	26
United States of America	322	324	0.7	390	3	4
Viet Nam	95	96	1.0	115	15	16
World	7 467	7 550	1.1	9 772	. .	. .
. . not applicable
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
(b) Selected country and world estimates and projections for 2016/2017 and 2050 are from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant projections).
Source: Australian estimates - this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections; Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0). Selected country and world estimates and projections - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision, custom data acquired via website (medium variant projections).