3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2015 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2015


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2015 was 23,781,200 people. This reflects an increase of 317,100 people since 30 June 2014 and 72,900 people since 31 March 2015.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2015 was 1.4%.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a)(b), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2015 was higher from net overseas migration (53%) than from natural increase (47%).

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a)(b), Australia



Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2015 was 148,900 people, a decrease of 5.1%, or 8,100 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2014 (157,000 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2015 (304,000 births) decreased by 3,000 births from the year ended 30 June 2014 (307,000 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2015 (155,100 deaths) increased by 5,000 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2014 (150,000 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2015, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 168,200 people. This was 11.4% (21,600 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2014 (189,800 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 0.8% (3,900 people) between the years ended 30 June 2014 (474,600 people) and 30 June 2015 (478,600 people).

NOM departures increased by 9.0% (25,500 people) between the years ended 30 June 2014 (284,900 people) and 30 June 2015 (310,400 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the June quarter 2015 (28,500 people) was 14.6% (4,900 people) lower than the estimate for the June quarter 2014 (33,400 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 June 2015 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,618,200;
  • Victoria 5,938,100;
  • Queensland 4,779,400;
  • South Australia 1,698,600;
  • Western Australia 2,591,600;
  • Tasmania 516,600;
  • Northern Territory 244,600; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 390,800.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2015. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 1.7%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.4%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2015, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2015, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria and Queensland.


Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2015 decreased in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania and increased in New South Wales, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in Victoria, decreasing by 5.5% (4,200 births). This was followed by Tasmania (down 4.0%) and South Australia (down 1.1%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2015 increased in all states and territories except for Tasmania (down 1.2%) and Victoria (down 0.4%). The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 7.6% (130 people). This was followed by Queensland (up 5.7%) and New South Wales (up 5.1%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 30 June 2015. Only the Australian Capital Territory recorded an increase when compared with the previous year (22.9%). All other states and territories recorded decreases in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in Western Australia at 31.6% (6,500 people). This was followed by Queensland, which decreased by 31.2% (by 8,700 people), and the Northern Territory which decreased by 30.6% (by 500 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

Compared with the previous year, half of all the states and territories recorded decreases in NOM arrivals in the year ended 30 June 2015. Western Australia recorded the largest decrease in both percentage and numbers at 10.2% (6,300 people). This was followed by the Northern Territory at 3.1% (200 people), Queensland at 3.0% (2,600 people) and South Australia at 0.4% (100 people). Increases in NOM arrivals were recorded in the Australian Capital Territory at 6.8% (600 people), Victoria 5.4% (6,700 people), New South Wales 3.6% (5,800 people) and Tasmania 0.6% (20 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures increased in all states and territories in the year ended 30 June 2015. The largest percentage increase was recorded in Victoria at 14.9% (9,900 people) and Tasmania at 13.0% (320 people). This was followed by Queensland at 10.4% (6,100 people), New South Wales 8.7% (8,100 people), the Northern Territory 6.4% (290 people), South Australia 3.8% (500 people), the Australian Capital Territory 2.1% (130 people) and Western Australia at 0.5% (200 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 30 June 2015, only Victoria and Queensland recorded net interstate migration (NIM) gains. Victoria continued a recent trend of recording the highest net gain with 10,200 people, up from 8,800 people in the year ended 30 June 2014. This was followed by Queensland with 6,400 people, which was up from 5,800 people in the previous year. Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (6,600 people), South Australia (3,800 people), the Northern Territory (3,000 people), Western Australia (2,000 people) the Australian Capital Territory (700 people) and Tasmania (500 people). For more information, see table 17.

INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net-States and Territories-year ending June 2015
Graph: INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net–States and Territories–year ending June 2015



International Comparison

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2015, Australia's population growth rate of 1.4% was above that of the world at 1.2%. Australia is growing at a faster rate than New Zealand and the United States of America (both 0.7%), the United Kingdom (0.6%), and Canada (1%), Some countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were the Philippines (1.6%), Singapore (1.8%) and Papua New Guinea (2.1%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 53rd in 2015 (decreasing from 52 in 2014) and is projected to rank 61st by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.7 billion people compared with 1.35 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK - Summary(a)

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
2014(b)
2015(b)
Growth Rate
2050
2015
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
24
24
1.4
38
53
61
Canada
36
36
1.0
44
38
47
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 369
1 376
0.5
1 348
1
2
France
64
64
0.4
71
22
27
Greece
11
11
-0.4
10
81
102
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
0.8
8
103
111
India
1 295
1 311
1.2
1 705
2
1
Indonesia
254
258
1.2
322
4
5
Italy
60
60
-
57
23
33
Japan
127
127
-0.2
107
11
17
Korea (South)
50
50
0.4
51
27
39
Malaysia
30
30
1.4
41
44
54
New Zealand
5
5
0.7
6
125
127
Papua New Guinea
7
8
2.1
13
100
85
Philippines
99
101
1.6
148
12
13
Singapore
6
6
1.8
7
114
116
South Africa
54
54
1.0
66
24
29
Sweden
10
10
0.8
12
90
90
United Kingdom
64
65
0.6
75
21
24
United States of America
319
322
0.7
389
3
4
Viet Nam
92
93
1.1
113
14
16
World
7 266
7 349
1.2
9 725
-
-

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
(b) Selected country and world estimates and projections for 2014/2015 and 2050 are from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (medium variant projections).
Source: Australian estimates - this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections; Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0). Selected country and world estimates and projections - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision, custom data acquired via website (medium variant projections).