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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2007 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 24/06/2008   
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MAIN FEATURES


POPULATION AND GROWTH 2007

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 December 2007 was 21,181,000 persons, an increase of 331,900 since 31 December 2006 and 84,700 persons since 30 September 2007. The increase for the year ended 31 December 2007 is the largest recorded for a 12 month period since the ERP concept was introduced in 1971 (see paragraphs 4 to 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail).

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 December 2007, at 1.59% was the fastest annual growth rate for a year ended 31 December since 1988 (at 1.78%).


PRELIMINARY DATA

Due to the collection and estimation methods applied to produce preliminary statistics from the components of population change, users should exercise caution when analysing and interpreting the most recent quarterly estimates.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration.


Natural Increase

Natural increase for the 12 months ended 31 December 2007 was 147,400 persons, an increase of 11.3% (or 15,000 persons) on the natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2006 (132,400 persons).

BIRTHS

The preliminary estimate for births during the year ended 31 December 2007 (285,300) was 6.9% higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2006 (266,800). Births in the year ended 31 December 2007 was the highest ever recorded for a year ending 31 December. See Notes on page 2.

DEATHS

The preliminary estimate for deaths during the year ended 31 December 2007 (137,800) was the highest ever recorded for a year ending 31 December.


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2007, Australia recorded a preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate of 184,400 persons. The preliminary NOM estimate for 2007 was the difference between 410,900 overseas arrivals that were added to the population (NOM arrivals) and 226,400 overseas departures that were subtracted from the population (NOM departures). The contribution made to population growth by NOM (55.6%) was higher than that of natural increase (44.4%).

AN IMPROVED METHOD FOR CALCULATING NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION

The ABS has introduced an improved method for estimating NOM. This method has been used for September quarter 2006 onwards. Preliminary NOM estimates are based on international movement data for the reference quarter, adjusted by information derived from travellers with the same characteristics from the corresponding quarter two years earlier. Final NOM estimates for the four quarters of 2006-07 (scheduled for release in March 2009) will be based on the actual duration of stay in Australia and overseas of international travellers.

The time series using the previous method for calculating NOM finishes at June quarter 2006. Estimates from this past time series and the current time series, shown in table 16, are not comparable. For further information see Information Paper: Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration (cat. no. 3107.0.55.003); Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note Measuring Net Overseas Migration, Method Used September Quarter 2001 to June Quarter 2006 in the March quarter 2007 issue of this publication (cat. no. 3101.0).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident populations for the states and territories at 31 December 2007 were as follows: New South Wales 6,927,000, Victoria 5,246,000, Queensland 4,228,000, South Australia 1,592,000, Western Australia 2,131,000, Tasmania 495,800, the Northern Territory 217,600, and the Australian Capital Territory 340,800.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 31 December 2007. Western Australia and the Northern Territory recorded the fastest growth rate (2.4%), followed by Queensland (2.3%), Victoria (1.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.3%), New South Wales (1.1%), South Australia (1.0%) and Tasmania (0.8%).


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2007, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

Population Components as proportion of total growth(a) - Year ended 31 December 2006
Graph: Population Components as proportion of total growth(a)—Year ended 31 December 2006



Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, natural increase was the major component of population growth in the Australian Capital Territory at 70.7% (3,200 persons) Tasmania at 62.2% (2,500 persons), New South Wales at 58.7% (42,800 persons) and the Northern Territory at 56.4% (2,800 persons) for the year ended 31 December 2007.

BIRTHS

The number of births registered for the 12 months ended 31 December 2007 increased in all states and territories. Queensland recorded the largest percentage increase of 17.8%. This increase in Queensland birth registrations, is likely to be in part the result of changes in procedures for processing birth registrations in Queensland (see Notes on page 2).

DEATHS

The number of deaths registered for the 12 months ended 31 December 2007 increased in all states and territories except Victoria, with the Northern Territory recording the largest percentage increase of 12.4%.


Net Overseas Migration

Net overseas migration for the year ended 31 December 2007, as illustrated in the previous graph, was the major component of population growth in South Australia at 79.0% (13,100 persons). This was followed by New South Wales at 74.3% (54,200 persons), Victoria at 59.5% (49,000 persons), Western Australia at 58.3% (28,900 persons) and Queensland at 37.0% (35,800 persons). All other states and territories experienced positive net overseas migration.


Net Interstate Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2007, Queensland experienced the highest positive net interstate migration with a gain of 25,600 persons. Other states and territories that experienced positive net interstate migration were Western Australia (3,800 persons), the Northern Territory (860 persons) the Australian Capital Territory (350 persons) and Tasmania (290 persons). Negative net interstate migration was experienced by New South Wales (24,000 persons), South Australia (3,800 persons) and Victoria (3,100 persons).

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 31 December 2007
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—Year ended 31 December 2007



FINAL REBASED POPULATION ESTIMATES

After each Census, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the new information obtained to rebase the estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia and its states and territories. In this issue, the ABS has used the 2006 Census of Population and Housing (2006 Census) to produce final rebased estimates of the resident population.

For further information, refer to the following feature article Final Rebasing and Revision of Australia's Population Estimates, September Quarter 2001 - June Quarter 2006, on page 13 of this publication.


POPULATION AND GROWTH, 1986 TO 2006

Over the last 20 years (June 1986 to June 2006), the ERP of Australia has grown from just over 16 million to just under 20.7 million, an increase of 29% (4,680,000 persons). During this period the national annual growth rate has varied between 1.7% in 1989 and 1.0% in 1993. The average annual growth rate over this 20 year period was 1.2%.

Components of population growth, Australia
Graph: Components of population growth, Australia


Since Federation, natural increase has generally contributed more to Australia's annual population growth than net overseas migration (NOM). Over the past 20 financial years NOM has exceeded natural increase in five years: 1988, 1989, 2001, 2003 and 2006. Quarterly analysis shows NOM has exceeded natural increase for one third of the 20 year period.


POPULATION AND GROWTH, 2001 TO 2006

The final rebased ERP of Australia at 30 June 2006 was 20,698,000 persons, an increase over the most recent intercensal period (2001-2006) of 1,285,000. During this five year period, the population grew by 6.6% compared with 6.0% for the previous intercensal period (1996-2001).

At 30 June 2006, the final rebased ERP for the states and territories were as follows: New South Wales 6,816,000, Victoria 5,127,000, Queensland 4,091,000, South Australia 1,568,000, Western Australia 2,059,000, Tasmania 490,000, the Northern Territory 210,600 and the Australian Capital Territory 334,100.

Over the five years (2001-2006), all states and territories experienced population growth. Queensland experienced the fastest growth, increasing 12.7%. This was followed by Western Australia (8.3%), Victoria (6.7%), the Northern Territory (6.5%), the Australian Capital Territory (4.6%), Tasmania (3.8%) and then South Australia and New South Wales both with the smallest growth (3.7%). When compared to the previous five year period (1996 to 2001), New South Wales and the Northern Territory were the only two jurisdictions that did not experience a higher growth rate. Tasmania, when compared to the previous five year period, experienced the largest change to its population growth, changing from negative to positive growth.

Total Population Growth - 1996 to 2006
Graph: Total Population Growth—1996 to 2006


The national average annual growth rate for the five year period from June 2001 to June 2006 was 1.3%. This was more than the 20 year average (1986-2006) and the previous intercensal period (1996-2001) both at 1.2%. The annual population growth rate for the year ending 30 June 2006 was higher than these averages at 1.5%.

Over the last intercensal period (2001-2006), the average annual growth rates for the states and territories from highest to lowest were as follows: Queensland 2.4%, Western Australia 1.6%, Victoria and the Northern Territory both at 1.3%, the Australian Capital Territory 0.9%, Tasmania 0.8% and the lowest growth being shared between New South Wales and South Australia both at 0.7%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

During the five years (2001-2006), natural increase contributed 601,400 persons to Australia's total population growth, 0.1% lower than the previous intercensal period (1996-2001). Net overseas migration, on the other hand, contributed 597,500 persons which was 18.2% higher than that recorded for the previous intercensal period.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth over the five year period, 2001 to 2006, the proportion each component contributed to, or subtracted from, population growth varied considerably between the states and territories.

Population Components as proportion of total growth(a) - 5 years ended 30 June 2006
Graph: Population Components as proportion of total growth(a)—5 years ended 30 June 2006



Natural increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the five year period 2001 to 2006, natural increase was the main component of population growth for the majority of the states and territories including the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria.

BIRTHS

When comparing the number of births recorded between the last intercensal period (2001 to 2006) and the previous intercensal period (1996 to 2001), there was a 1.0% increase at the national level. However, not all states and territories experienced an increase. Those recording a decrease in births were South Australia (down 3.0%), New South Wales (2.1%), Tasmania (1.9%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.4%), whereas an increase was recorded by Queensland (up 6.4%), Victoria (3.0%), the Northern Territory (1.3%) and Western Australia (1.0%).

DEATHS

Comparing the number of deaths recorded between the last intercensal period and the previous intercensal period showed there was an increase for all states and territories with a national increase of 3.0%.


Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration made a contribution to population growth of each state and territory for the five year period 2001 to 2006. New South Wales (78.4%) and Western Australia (52.9%) were the only states where NOM was the major component of population growth during the intercensal period.

As illustrated in the previous graph, the contribution to population growth made by NOM over the five year period (2001-2006) was very close to that of natural increase in New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, Queensland and at the national level. For the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania, NOM contributed a relatively small amount to population growth compared to natural increase.


Net interstate migration

During the five years (2001 to 2006) Queensland was the only state or territory where net interstate migration was the major component of population growth.

During the same period, Queensland consistently recorded the highest positive net interstate migration, with an increase of 164,500 persons. Tasmania (3,300) and Western Australia (2,700) also received growth through interstate migration. The remaining states and territories all lost population through net interstate migration over this same five year period; New South Wales (a net loss of 140,600), South Australia (11,300), the Northern Territory (6,200), Victoria (5,100) and the Australian Capital Territory (3,200).

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - 5 Years ended 30 June 2006
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—5 Years ended 30 June 2006


Over the five year period (2001-2006), the largest interstate migration movement was the 289,400 persons moving from New South Wales to Queensland. The second largest movement was the inverse of this, with 180,000 persons moving from Queensland to New South Wales. The next largest movement was those persons moving from New South Wales to Victoria (130,400 persons ).


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