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LABOUR FORCE SURVEY SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT ENHANCEMENTS
When Easter Monday coincides with the start of the second week of the survey reference period, a significant negative effect is found in the adult Female Employed and Female Part-time Employed series. A complementary positive effect is also found in Female Not in the Labour Force series.
Change in seasonal adjustment approach
Traditionally, the labour force times series have used forward factor seasonal adjustment, which is generally estimated once per year. This method relies on an annual analysis of the latest available original data to project seasonal factors (known as forward factors) that will be applied in the forthcoming 12 months.
Alternatively, concurrent seasonal adjustment uses the original time series available at each reference period to estimate seasonal factors for the current and previous months. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is technically superior to the annual forward factor method because it uses all available data to fine tune the estimates of seasonal component at each period. The ABS has demonstrated the advantages of concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology in terms of improved seasonal factor estimates and revision reduction. Concurrent seasonal adjustment has been implemented on many other ABS time series with positive user acceptance of these changes. It has been decided to implement concurrent seasonal adjustment for labour force times series starting in the November 2003 reference month.
For more information, please contact Mark Zhang on (02) 6252-5132.
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