Population turnover, 2008-09

Population turnover measures the gross flow in each state or territory in relation to the size of the population and reveals the level of turnover experienced by a population. Gross flows can also be used to analyse population redistribution.

Table 6.6 shows that the level of population turnover for 2008-09 varied considerably between the states and territories. The highest population turnover occurred in the Northern Territory where the gross flows represented 15% of the Northern Territory's total population. This high level of mobility reflects the fact that the Northern Territory experiences a large number of temporary or short-term interstate moves. These moves are possibly driven by employment conditions and could include Defence Force personnel and workers involved in the mining and associated industries. The Australian Capital Territory also recorded a high population turnover (11% of the territory's total population) reflecting the large number of Commonwealth employees, Defence Force personnel, as well as interstate students studying in Canberra.

6.6 Population Turnover and Migration Effectiveness Ratios (MER)(a) - 2008-09
	Interstate arrivals	Interstate departures	Net interstate moves	Gross interstate moves	Population(b)	Population turnover(c)	Interstate (MER)(d)
	no.	no.	no.	no.	'000	%	%
NSW	85 904	105 735	-19 831	191 639	7 075.7	2.7	-10.3
Vic.	67 424	66 726	698	134 150	5 381.8	2.5	0.5
Qld	98 182	79 794	18 388	177 976	4 366.4	4.1	10.3
SA	21 648	26 324	-4 676	47 972	1 612.6	3.0	-9.7
WA	38 736	33 911	4 825	72 647	2 211.6	3.3	6.6
Tas.	13 218	12 546	672	25 764	500.9	5.1	2.6
NT	16 712	15 966	746	32 678	222.8	14.7	2.3
ACT	18 082	18 904	-822	36 986	348.5	10.6	-2.2
Total	359 906	359 906	. .	719 812	21 722.8	3.3	. .
. . not applicable
(a) Estimates for 2008-09 are preliminary - see paragraphs 9-10 of the Explanatory Notes
(b) Estimated resident population at 31 December 2008.
(c) Gross interstate movements as a percentage of the population at 31 December 2008.
(d) Net interstate migration divided by gross interstate migration expressed as a percentage.

While Victoria had the third highest number of gross moves (134,200 moves) in 2008-09, it had the lowest population turnover (2.5% of the state's total population). Similarly, the 191,600 gross moves for New South Wales translated to only 2.7% of the state's population turnover.


Population redistribution

Another way of looking at interstate migration is to assess how effective migration has been in redistributing the population. This method, known as the migration effectiveness ratio (MER), compares the total net gain or loss to the gross moves and is expressed as a percentage (Bell, 1995)(footnote 1) . Table 6.6 shows that for 2008-09 Queensland had the highest MER (10.3%), gaining 10 persons for every 100 interstate moves in or out of Queensland. New South Wales and South Australia also recorded a high MER albeit negative (-10.3% and -9.7% respectively). This indicates that both states each lost 10 persons for every 100 interstate moves in or out of their state.

While Western Australia recorded a medium range MER of 6.6%, the remaining states and territories recorded positive or negative MERs below 3%.

Both the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (each with similar numbers of arrivals and departures) demonstrate that high population turnover does not necessarily lead to population redistribution at the territory level. While the Northern Territory's population turnover was 15%, it gained just over two persons for every 100 interstate moves in or out of the territory. Similarly, the Australian Capital Territory with a population turnover of 11%, lost just over two persons for every 100 movements in or out of the territory.

1 Bell, M. 1995, Internal Migration in Australia 1986–91: overview report, Bureau of Immigration Multicultural and Population Research, Canberra, p109.<back

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