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8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Oct 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/12/2003   
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October Key Figures

Oct 03
Sep 03 to Oct 03
$m
% change

Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
15,515.8
0.8
Seasonally adjusted estimates
15,570.8
1.2

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates% change
Graph - Monthly turnover, Trend estimates



October Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.8% in October 2003 compared with September 2003. This follows increases of 0.9% in the previous four months.
  • The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory. The largest increases were in Queensland, Tasmania, New South Wales and the Northern Territory.
  • Over the three months to October 2003 the trend estimate rose by $391m. Hospitality and services (+$101m), Food retailing (+$77m), Other retailing (+$74m) and Household good retailing (+$61m) showed the largest increases.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.2% in October 2003 compared with September 2003. This follows a revised increase of 0.8% in September 2003 and an increase of 1.0% in August 2003.
  • The estimate of total turnover for October 2003 was 8.6% higher than October 2002.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 7.8% in October 2003 compared with September 2003. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 8.2%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 7.4%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 9.7% in October 2003 compared with October 2002. Chains and other large retailers increased by 8.4%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 11.4%.


Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



NET PROCEEDS FROM GAMBLING

The net proceeds from gambling in Hotels and licensed clubs for June quarter 2003 was 3.7% of the Total Retail seasonally adjusted series, and for September quarter 2003 was 3.5%. This compares with 3.7% in the March quarter 2003 and 3.6% in the December quarter 2002. These are the latest available estimates for this series. For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraph 17.



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for October 2003 contained in this publication are:

Data Series
Estimate
Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)
16,013.0
150.1
Change from preceding month ($m)
1,162.5
80.4
% change from preceding month (%)
7.8
0.6


Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.


For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34, or contact Graham Phillips on 02 6252 5625.



Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.


INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

Trend growth has been strong over the last six months. Over this period all industries have experienced growth. Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong trend growth in each of the last five months. The trend growth in Household good retailing is moderating after six months of strong trend growth.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail


FOOD RETAILING

There has been weak to moderate trend growth over the last 15 months. Queensland and Tasmania have had strong growth in each of the last six months while the Northern Territory has had moderate growth. Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were flat or in decline in the last two months.

Graph: industry graphs_food retailing


DEPARTMENT STORES

Trend growth has been moderate since December 2002. Queensland was the only state with strong growth in each of the last three months. The Australian Capital Territory was in decline in each of these months.

Graph: industry graphs_department stores


CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth in each of the last three months after nine months of weak trend growth. Western Australia had moderate trend growth in October 2003 after strong growth in the previous five months and Queensland has had moderate trend growth over the last seven months.

Graph: industry graphs_clothing & soft good ret


HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

After six months of strong trend growth, there was moderate trend growth in October 2003. New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have all had strong growth in each of the last six months. The trend growth rate for Victoria has been decreasing since May 2003 with weak trend growth in August, September and October 2003.

Graph: industry graphs_household good retailing


RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong trend growth over the last six months. New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania have had strong trend growth over this period, while Western Australia has had strong growth for most of this period. The Northern Territory had no growth in October 2003 after having strong trend growth from February to July 2003. Victoria has been in decline for 14 months and South Australia for the last five months.

Graph: industry graphs_recreational good retailing


OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has been strong over the last nine months, after a long period of mostly moderate growth. Queensland has had strong trend growth since August 2002, but had moderate growth in October 2003. Victoria has had strong trend growth over the last six months and New South Wales over the last eight months. South Australia and Western Australia have been flat or in decline since June 2003.

Graph: industry graphs_other retaling


TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slightly below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for five of the last seven months.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail (excl hospitality and services)


HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth over the last five months. Queensland and Tasmania have had strong trend growth in each of the last eight months, and Victoria over the last six months. Western Australia had moderate growth in October 2003 after five months of strong growth. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in October 2003.

Graph: industry graphs_hospitality & services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

Trend growth has been moderate to strong for the last seven months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have shown strong trend growth over this period. Clothing and soft good retailing has shown weak growth in the last three months after being flat or in decline for the previous seven months.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, new south wales


VICTORIA

Trend growth has been moderate in each of the last ten months. Other retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth in each of the last six months. After six months of moderate to strong trend growth Household good retailing had weak growth in the last three months. Recreational good retailing has been in decline since September 2002. Food retailing was in decline in October 2003.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, victoria


QUEENSLAND

Trend growth has been strong for seven months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have all shown strong trend growth in each of these months, while Food retailing has had strong growth in the last six months. Department stores and Other retailing had moderate to strong growth in this period.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, queensland


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has shown weak growth in the last two months after having been flat or in decline for the previous three months. Food retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing were flat or in decline in October 2003. All other industries showed moderate growth.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, south australia


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend growth has slowed to moderate in the last two months after four months of strong growth. The trend growth for Household good retailing has been strong since October 2002. Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services had moderate growth in October 2003 after five months of strong growth. Food retailing has been flat for the last two months.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, western australia


TASMANIA

The trend growth has been strong over the last seven months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth in each of these months, while Food retailing has had strong growth over the last six months. Clothing and soft good retailing has been mostly flat over the last eight months.

Graph - Monthly seasonally adjusted and trend estimates, tasmania

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