Australian Bureau of Statistics
Celebrating the International Year of Statistics 2013

• Summary
• Downloads
• Explanatory Notes
• Related Information
• Past & Future Releases

EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised (see paragraphs 19 and 20 of Explanatory Notes).


TREND REVISIONS

The examples in the tables below show four illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and unemployment rate.

1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate is the same as the May estimate.

2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the May estimate by:

• +0.30% for employment

• +1.84% for the unemployment rate

• -0.30% for employment

• -1.84% for the unemployment rate

EMPLOYMENT (’000)				WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		1 9 305.2 i.e. the same as May 2002	2 9 332.7 i.e. rises by 0.30%	3 9 277.6 i.e. falls by 0.30%	4 9 267.5 i.e. same trend for May & Jun
	2002
	March	9,282.3		9,281.6	9,282.8	9,280.4	9,279.9
	April	9,294.3		9,292.6	9,296.7	9,288.6	9,287.1
	May	9,302.7		9,300.9	9,308.5	9,293.2	9,290.4
	June (new)	-		9,306.2	9,317.8	9,294.6	9,290.4

				WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		1 6.3 i.e. the same as May 2002	2 6.4 i.e. rises by 1.84%	3 6.2 i.e. falls by 1.84%	4 6.7 i.e same trend for May & Jun
	2002
	March	6.4		6.5	6.5	6.4	6.5
	April	6.3		6.3	6.4	6.3	6.4
	May	6.2		6.3	6.3	6.2	6.4
	June (new)	-		6.2	6.2	6.2	6.4