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5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Oct 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/12/2007   
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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

Trend estimates
Seasonally adjusted estimates
Oct 2007
Sep 2007 to Oct 2007
Oct 2007
Sep 2007 to Oct 2007

Value of dwelling commitments(a)
$m
% change
$m
% change
Total dwellings
22 079
-1.0
22 097
1.7
Owner occupied housing
15 136
-0.7
15 157
1.1
Investment housing - fixed loans(b)
6 943
-1.4
6 940
2.9
Number of dwelling commitments(a)
no.
% change
no.
% change
Owner occupied housing
62 713
-0.9
62 509
-0.7
Construction of dwellings
4 758
1.1
4 838
2.6
Purchase of new dwellings
2 883
-2.1
2 677
-9.4
Purchase of established dwellings
55 072
-1.1
54 994
-0.6

(a) Includes refinancing.
(b) Excludes revolving credit.


Value of dwelling commitments,
Total dwellings
Graph: Value of dwelling commitments, Total dwellings

Number of dwelling commitments,
Owner occupied housing
Graph: Number of dwelling commitments, Owner occupied housing



OCTOBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

October 2007 COMPARED WITH September 2007:

  • Total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions decreased by 1.0%. The value of owner occupied housing commitments decreased by 0.7% and the value of investment housing commitments decreased by 1.4%.
  • The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance decreased by 0.9% and the number excluding refinancing decreased by 0.7%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

October 2007 COMPARED WITH September 2007:
  • Total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions increased 1.7%. Owner occupied housing commitments increased 1.1% and investment housing commitments increased 2.9%.
  • The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance decreased by 0.7%, while the number excluding refinancing increased by 0.5%.
  • The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by wholesale lenders n.e.c. decreased by 20.3%.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • The number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments increased from 17.7% in September 2007 to 18.7% in October 2007.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
November 2007 16 January 2008
December 2007 11 February 2008
January 2008 11 March 2008
February 2008 14 April 2008
March 2008 12 May 2008
April 2008 10 June 2008



CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

The November 2007 issue of Housing Finance, Australia (cat. no. 5609.0) will contain revisions to estimates due to the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis.

Recently, the ABS implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.

The seasonal adjustment Housing Finance estimates will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjust estimates. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to include the latest available administrative and survey data.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Michael Abbondante on Canberra (02) 6252 6707.


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