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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Mar 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/05/2003   
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  • What If

EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

Readers should exercise care in the interpretation of the trend data as the last three observations, in particular, are likely to be revised with the addition of subsequent months’ data. For further information, see Explanatory Note 7.


TREND REVISIONS

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:

1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of the balance on goods and services ‘improves’ by $200 million when compared with the March seasonally adjusted estimate. (An ‘improvement’ refers to an increase in a surplus or a decrease in a deficit.)

2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of the balance on goods and services ‘deteriorates’ by $200 million when compared with the March seasonally adjusted estimate. (A ‘deterioration’ refers to a decrease in a surplus or an increase in a deficit.)

The change of $200 million has been chosen because in the last decade the average monthly movement, without regard to sign, of the seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services series has been approximately $200 million.



BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES

Graph: What if analysis

TREND AS
PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:


1
2
improves by
$200m on
Mar 2003
deteriorates by
$200m on
Mar 2003
$m
$m
$m

September 2002
-1,021
-1,021
-1,021
October 2002
-1,152
-1,162
-1,155
November 2002
-1,302
-1,318
-1,305
December 2002
-1,447
-1,455
-1,448
January 2003
-1,564
-1,543
-1,560
February 2003
-1,651
-1,577
-1,637
March 2003
-1,708
-1,574
-1,686
April 2003
-1,541
-1,709


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