EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
Readers should exercise care in the interpretation of the trend data as the last three observations, in particular, are likely to be revised with the addition of subsequent months’ data. For further information, see Explanatory Note 7.
TREND REVISIONS
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:
1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of the balance on goods and services ‘improves’ by $200 million when compared with the March seasonally adjusted estimate. (An ‘improvement’ refers to an increase in a surplus or a decrease in a deficit.)
2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of the balance on goods and services ‘deteriorates’ by $200 million when compared with the March seasonally adjusted estimate. (A ‘deterioration’ refers to a decrease in a surplus or an increase in a deficit.)
The change of $200 million has been chosen because in the last decade the average monthly movement, without regard to sign, of the seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services series has been approximately $200 million.
|
BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES
|  | TREND AS
PUBLISHED | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: |
|
|
|
| | 1 | 2 |
| | improves by
$200m on
Mar 2003 | deteriorates by
$200m on
Mar 2003 |
| $m | $m | $m |
|
|
| | | |
| September 2002 | -1,021 | -1,021 | -1,021 |
| October 2002 | -1,152 | -1,162 | -1,155 |
| November 2002 | -1,302 | -1,318 | -1,305 |
| December 2002 | -1,447 | -1,455 | -1,448 |
| January 2003 | -1,564 | -1,543 | -1,560 |
| February 2003 | -1,651 | -1,577 | -1,637 |
| March 2003 | -1,708 | -1,574 | -1,686 |
| April 2003 | | -1,541 | -1,709 |
|
| | | | |
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