ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,555m in September 2012, a rise of $130m (9%) on the deficit in August 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,456m in September 2012, a fall of $420m (22%) on the deficit in August 2012.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2012 was a deficit of $4,566m, a rise of $2,433m (114%) on the deficit of $2,133 for the three months to June 2012. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2012 deficit was $4,583m, a rise of $2,536m (124%) on the revised June quarter 2012 deficit of $2,047m. The main goods components contributing to this quarter-on-quarter result were:

• Goods credits
  • metal ores and minerals, down $3,223m (15%). In original terms, on an international merchandise trade basis, iron ore and concentrates, fell $2,444m (16%) with quantities up 2% and unit values down 17%
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $753m (7%). In original terms, on an international merchandise trade basis, coal, not agglomerated, fell $656m (6%) with quantities up 3% and unit values down 9%
  • other mineral fuels, up $629m (9%). In original terms, on an international merchandise trade basis, natural gas, whether or not liquefied, rose $1,086m (34%).
• Goods debits
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $767m (16%).

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in the upcoming issues of Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $365m (1%) to $24,560m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $158m (1%) to $24,166m. Non-rural goods fell $331m (2%), rural goods fell $74m (3%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (13%). Non-monetary gold rose $253m (20%). Services credits fell $3m.


Exports of goods


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $23m (1%) to $2,913m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $74m (3%) to $2,835m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $107m (12%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the other rural component, up $47m (4%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $358m (2%) to $15,858m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $331m (2%) to $15,438m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $658m (11%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the coal, coke and briquettes component, up $325m (11%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (8%) to $14m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (13%) to $14m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $3m to $1,438m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $253m (20%) to $1,533m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $18m to $4,337m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $3m to $4,347m.

The only component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, down $9m (2%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the travel component, up $5m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $1m to $2,890m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $236m (1%) to $26,114m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $577m (2%) to $25,623m. Capital goods fell $460m (8%), consumption goods fell $323m (6%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $104m (1%). Non-monetary gold rose $281m (70%). Services debits rose $28m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $38m (1%) to $5,610m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $323m (6%) to $5,463m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $251m (15%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $144m (2%) to $5,792m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $460m (8%) to $5,465m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $215m (11%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $194m (34%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $73m (1%) to $9,102m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $104m (1%) to $8,971m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $91m (4%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $27m (5%) to $564m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $281m (70%) to $683m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $8m to $5,047m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $28m (1%) to $5,040m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $71m.

Partly offsetting this rise was the transport component, down $44m (3%), with freight transport down $49m (6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $9m to $2,697m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis - Original terms
		Change in
		Apr 2012	May 2012	Jun 2012	Jul 2012	Aug 2012	Sep 2012
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(a)
Lump
	Quantity	23	-17	-2	5	5	-4
	Unit value	2	4	-4	-8	-5	-11
Fines
	Quantity	11	8	-3	1	5	-5
	Unit value	3	2	-3	-7	-10	-12
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	7	8	8	-21	14	14
	Unit value	-	-	-2	-2	-3	-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	7	-4	-5	5	-13	10
	Unit value	-	-1	-5	-4	-1	-3
Thermal
	Quantity	16	-7	8	13	-14	12
	Unit value	-3	2	-3	-5	-2	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August and September 2012 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump fell $171m (15%) with quantities down 4% and unit values down 11%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $76m (23%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 6%
• Republic of Korea fell $60m (44%), with quantities down 37% and unit values down 12%
• China fell $52m (8%), with quantities up 4% and unit values down 11%.

Iron ore fines fell $565m (17%) with quantities down 5% and unit values down 12%. Exports to:

• China fell $404m (17%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 14%
• Japan fell $91m (20%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 5%.

Hard coking coal rose $173m (13%) with quantities up 14% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China rose $87m (162%), driven by quantities
• India rose $77m (26%), with quantities up 20% and unit values up 5%.

Semi-soft coal rose $36m (6%) with quantities up 10% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• China rose $66m (108%), with quantities up 95% and unit values up 6%
• India fell $28m (34%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal rose $125m (10%) with quantities up 12% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $90m (14%), driven by quantities
• Taiwan rose $43m (37%), with quantities up 42% and unit values down 3%.