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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jan 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/03/2004   
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KEY FIGURES


January Key Figures


November 2003
December 2003
January 2004
Dec 03 to Jan 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend
Balance on goods & services
-2,026
-2,033
-2,040
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,659
11,735
11,814
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,685
13,768
13,854
1
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services
-1,715
-2,554
-1,962
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,675
11,485
12,010
5
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,390
14,039
13,972
-

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
Balance on goods and services
Graph - Balance of Goods and Services



January Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,040m in January 2004, an increase of $7m on the deficit in December.
  • Goods and services credits rose $79m (1%) to $11,814m. Goods and services debits increased $86m (1%) to $13,854m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,962m in January, a decrease of $592m (23%) on the deficit in December.
  • Goods and services credits rose $525m (5%) to $12,010m, with goods credits up $478m (6%), and services credits up $47m (2%). Rural goods rose $263m (14%), and non-rural and other goods rose $215m (3%).
  • Goods and services debits fell $67m to $13,972m, with goods debits down $28m and services debits down $39m (1%). Intermediate and other goods fell $139m (3%), capital goods fell $111m (4%), while consumption goods rose $222m (6%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the January balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,887m, a decrease of $160m (8%) on the deficit in December. Goods and services credits fell $910m (8%), and goods and services debits fell $1,070m (8%).
  • In the seven months to January, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $5.6b (10%) and rural goods were down $3.1b (19%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.


Notes



CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.


Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.


Analysis and comments

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2004 was a deficit of $2,040m, an increase of $7m on the deficit in December.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2004 was a deficit of $1,962m, a decrease of $592m (23%) on the deficit in December.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $79m (1%) in January to $11,814m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $525m (5%) in January to $12,010m. Rural goods rose $263m (14%), non-rural and other goods rose $215m (3%), and services credits rose $47m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph -  Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods rose $52m (3%) to $1,986m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods rose $263m (14%) to $2,142m.


Rural goods, in original terms, fell $241m (11%) to $1,870m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $90m (21%), compared with an average December to January rise of 8% over the previous three years
  • meat and meat preparations, down $149m (31%), compared with an average December to January fall of 39% over the previous three years
  • other rural, down $88m (9%), compared with an average December to January fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were wool and sheepskins, down $94m (38%), compared with an average December to January fall of 34% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $23m to $6,915m.


Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods rose $215m (3%) to $7,018m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods fell $1,093m (15%) to $6,084m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • machinery, down $164m (29%), compared with an average December to January fall of 40% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, down $91m (12%), compared with an average December to January fall of 16% over the previous three years
  • other mineral fuels, down $49m (6%), compared with an average December to January fall of 10% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • metals (excluding gold), down $136m (20%), compared with an average December to January fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • metal ores and minerals, down $293m (23%), compared with an average December to January fall of 18% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph - Services Credits



Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $47m (2%) to $2,850m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • travel services, up $26m (2%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, up $18m (3%)
  • other services, up $2m
  • freight transportation services, up $1m (1%).


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $86m (1%) in January to $13,854m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $67m to $13,972m.


Intermediate and other goods fell $139m (3%), capital goods fell $111m (4%), and services debits fell $39m (1%), while consumption goods rose $222m (6%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph - Goods Debits



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $56m (2%) to $3,624m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $222m (6%) to $3,767m.


Consumption goods imports, in original terms, fell $295m (8%) to $3,222m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January, which contributed about 5 percentage points to the rise
  • non-industrial transport equipment, down $147m (14%), compared with an average December to January fall of 19% over the previous three years
  • consumption goods n.e.s., down $37m (4%), falling at a lower rate than the historical average.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • food and beverages, down $78m (16%), compared with an average December to January fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, down $46m (17%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $34m (1%) to $2,653m.


Seasonally adjusted, imports of capital goods fell $111m (4%) to $2,653m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $444m (16%) to $2,381m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • civil aircraft, down $9m (3%), in contrast to strong December to January rises over the previous three years
  • machinery and industrial equipment, down $131m (13%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $63m (16%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 6% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these was ADP equipment, down $77m (19%), compared with an average December to January fall of 21% over the previous three years.


Intermediate and other goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods fell $8m to $4,662m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports fell $139m (3%) to $4,689m.


Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, fell $401m (8%) to $4,478m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • fuels and lubricants, down $148m (17%), in contrast to an average rise between December and January of 5% over the previous three years
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $41m (4%), in contrast to an average rise between December and January of 12% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods, down $80m (11%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • goods for processing, down $9m (3%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 20% over the previous three years
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $40m (37%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 6 percentage points was the adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.


Imports of Services

SERVICES DEBITS
Graph - Services Debits



Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $39m (1%) to $2,863m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • freight transportation services, down $60m (11%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $7m (2%)
  • travel services, down $4m.

Partly offsetting these effects were other services, up $32m (3%).

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