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5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Jun 2006  
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REISSUE

5 September 2006
The following time series spreadsheets were reissued to correct data problems.
No other changes have been made.

Replacement tables contain corrections for the following series:

Table 6: Chain Laspeyres Price Index; Goods and Services Credits and Goods Credits Terms of Trade Index; Goods and Services
Table 56: Chain Laspeyres Price Index; Goods and Services Credits and Goods Credits Terms of Trade Index; Goods and Services
Table 101: Merchandise Exports, Balance of Payments Basis, Chain Volume Measures ; Combined confidential items excl some of SITC 280 (exports only) and some of SITCs 510 and 520 (imports only)
Table 102: Merchandise Exports, Balance of Payments Basis, Implicit Price Deflators ; Combined confidential items excl some of SITC 280 (exports only) and some of SITCs 510 and 520 (imports only)
Table 113: Percentage Change - Terms of Trade ; Goods and Services




JUNE QUARTER KEY FIGURES

Mar Qtr 2006
Jun Qtr 2006
Mar Qtr 2006 to Jun Qtr 2006
$m
$m
% change

TREND ESTIMATES

Balance on current account
-13 949
(a)-13 200
. .
Balance on goods and services
-4 389
(a)-4 073
. .
Net income
-9 456
-9 035
4

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Balance on current account
-13 631
-13 239
3
Balance on goods and services
-4 509
-4 138
8
Net income
-9 029
-9 006
-

ORIGINAL

Balance on current account
-13 073
-11 853
9
Balance on capital and financial account
13 349
12 239
-8

Levels at end of period

Net international investment position
533 103
540 869
1
Net equity
49 219
47 041
-4
Net debt
483 884
493 828
2

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) A trend break of $450m has been applied - see page 5 for details.

Current Account, Main aggregates - Trend estimates at current prices(a)
Graph: Current Account Main aggregates Trend estimates at current prices

International Investment
Graph: International Investment



JUNE QUARTER KEY POINTS


BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

  • The current account deficit, seasonally adjusted, fell $392m (3%) to $13,239m. The deficit on the balance of goods and services fell $371m (8%) to $4,138m. The income deficit fell $23m to $9,006m.
  • In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms there was an increase of $543m in the deficit on goods and services. This could be expected to contribute -0.2 percentage points to growth in the June quarter 2006 volume measures of GDP.
  • In original terms, the balance on current account for 2005-06 was a deficit of $54.4b, down $2.9b from the deficit of $57.4b for 2004-05.


INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION (IIP)
  • Australia's net IIP rose $8b to a net liability position of $541b. Net foreign debt was $494b, an increase of $10b, due mostly to net debt inflows of $16b. Net equity liabilities fell by $2b to $47b.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
September 2006 5 December 2006
December 2006 2 March 2007



REVISIONS

Table 36 summarises revisions, in original current price terms, since the last issue of this publication, for the last three years and six quarters.


Incorporation of the latest survey and administrative data has resulted in revisions to the current account back to September quarter 2002. In original terms, these revisions have:

  • decreased the 2002-03 current account deficit by $301m
  • decreased the 2003-04 current account deficit by $205m
  • decreased the 2004-05 current account deficit by $229m
  • decreased the March quarter 2006 current account deficit by $232m.

Changes to the classification of some import and export transactions, which are described in Changes in this issue on page 5, have led to revisions to certain import and export series, but not to total goods credits and total goods debits.


There have been revisions to the international investment position (IIP) data. This issue incorporates revisions to data from September quarter 2002. The revisions are the result of improved reporting, the identification and correction of errors and adjustments to approximate market valuation. These revisions have decreased Australia's net IIP liability as at 31 March 2006 by $37.9b. Net equity has been revised down by $28.3b and net debt has been revised down by $9.6b.


As identified in the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5, 1993), market valuation is the principle used for valuation of equity. Providers in the Survey of International Investment, the main source of information IIP data, are asked to value equity liabilities and equity assets on this basis. Some providers are unable to provide a market value and report net asset value. Where this creates a significant distortion, the ABS makes adjustments to approximate market valuation, a process that started in September quarter 2000. The adjustment process has been extended to more providers in this issue. These adjustments have been applied across the full time series presented in this issue and do not affect transactions recorded in the balance of payments. These adjustments affect the valuation of direct investment equity assets and improve the consistency of these series with Australia's domestic financial accounts.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Details of changes in this issue are provided on page 5.



INQUIRIES

For further information contact Bernard Williams on Canberra (02) 6252 5540 for balance of payments estimates, and Joe Whelan on Canberra (02) 6252 5541 for international investment estimates.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE


NON-RURAL EXPORTS

The prices of iron ore export commodities significantly increased in June quarter 2006. It is expected that the increased prices will continue to apply and will result in a shift in level of the current price measures of iron ore. The current original and seasonally adjusted estimates reflect the level shift resulting from the increased prices, but the impact of this increase has been taken into account in determining the concurrent seasonal factors.


Since the price increase impact is likely to result in a permanent change in the level of the series (at least for the duration of the current contracts), an estimated trend break correction of $450m has been applied to metal ores and minerals in June quarter 2006. As a minimum of three quarters are required for a trend break correction to be accurately estimated using time series techniques, the size of the trend break may be revised. Therefore, users should interpret the trend estimates for recent quarters with some caution. The June quarter 2006 trend observation is not visible in the broader level charts in this issue affected by the trend break.



CHAIN VOLUME ESTIMATES

A new base year, 2004-05, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent quarters. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2004-05, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.



REVISED TREATMENT OF GOODS FOR PROCESSING IN MERCHANDISE TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS

The classification of some imports and exports transactions to goods for processing has changed from this issue and earlier series have been revised. A feature article, Revised treatment of goods for processing in merchandise trade and Balance of Payments statistics, describing the change was released on 14 July 2006 with the May issue of International Trade in Goods and Services (Cat. no. 5368.0). The article can be accessed on the ABS web site www.abs.gov.au from the summary page of the May issue.


The impact on the estimates varies for each financial year but in broad terms the impact on goods credits (exports) for 2004-05 is that goods for processing has been reduced by about $0.7b and non-monetary gold increased by the same amount. For 2004-05 the goods for processing component of goods debits (imports) has been reduced by $2.8b and the non-monetary gold and processed industrial supplies n.e.s. components have been increased by about $1.7b and $1.1b, respectively. This reclassification does not impact on the balance of goods and services in original terms.



TIME SERIES DATA


TIME SERIES DATA

Data available free on the ABS web site <www.abs.gov.au> from the Details tab of this issue include:

  • longer time series of all tables contained in this publication
  • additional spreadsheets and data cubes as listed below:

51 Balance of payments: summary, original - Financial year


52 International investment position by net foreign equity and net foreign debt - Financial year


53 International investment position by foreign assets by equity and debt - Financial year


54 International investment position by foreign liabilities by equity and debt - Financial year


56 Goods and services: terms of trade, original - Financial year


57 Goods credits: original - Financial year


58 Goods debits: original - Financial year


63 Goods credits: implicit price deflators (Index numbers) - Financial year


64 Goods debits: implicit price deflators (Index numbers) - Financial year


65 Services credits: original - Financial year


66 Services debits: original - Financial year


68 Services credits: chain volume measures and implicit price deflators (Index numbers) - Financial year


69 Services debits: chain volume measures and implicit price deflators (Index numbers) - Financial year


70 Income credits: original - Financial year


71 Income debits: original - Financial year


73 Current transfers: original - Financial year


74 Capital account - Financial year


75 Financial Account - Financial year


76 International investment: Australian investment abroad - Financial year


77 International investment: foreign investment in Australia - Financial year


78 International investment: levels of Australian investment abroad - Financial year


79 International investment: levels of foreign investment in Australia - Financial year


80 International investment: foreign debt levels at the end of period - Financial year


81 International investment: gross external debt liabilities - Financial year


83 Balance of payments: exchange rates - Financial year


84 International investment: foreign assets and liabilities: by Industry - Financial year


85 Balance of payments: ratios of current account measures to GDP - Financial year


89 International investment position: historical summary - Financial year


95 Quarterly combined current price seasonal adjustment factors


101 Merchandise exports by SITC division on a Balance of payments basis, chain volume measures


102 Merchandise exports by SITC division on a Balance of payments basis, implicit price deflators


103 Merchandise exports by SITC division and section on a Recorded trade basis, chain volume measures


104 Merchandise exports by SITC division and section on a Recorded trade basis, implicit price deflators


105 Merchandise imports by End-Use categories on a Balance of payments basis, chain volume measures


106 Merchandise imports by End-Use categories on a Balance of payments basis, implicit price deflators


107 Merchandise imports by SITC division and section on a Recorded trade basis, chain volume measures


108 Merchandise imports by SITC division and section on a Recorded trade basis, implicit price deflators


109 Services credits and debits, chain volume measures


110 Services credits and debits, implicit price deflators


111 Balance of payments: current account transactions, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates (percentage change) - Quarter


112 Balance of payments: goods and services, implicit price deflators, original (index) - Quarter


113 Balance of payments: original and seasonally adjusted chain volume measures and indexes (percentage change) - Quarter


114 Balance of payments: goods credits, chain volume measures, original - Quarter


115 Balance of payments: goods debits, chain volume measures, original - Quarter


116 Balance of payments: services credits and debits, current prices, original and seasonally adjusted - Quarter


117 International investment: foreign assets, by direction and type of investment - Quarter


118 International investment: foreign liabilities, by direction and type of investment - Quarter


119 International investment: foreign debt transactions - Quarter


120 International investment: interest income on foreign debt - Quarter


214 Balance of payments: goods credits, chain volume measures, original - Financial year


215 Balance of payments: goods debits, chain volume measures, original - Financial year


216 Balance of payments: services credits and debits, current prices, original and seasonally adjusted - Financial year


217 International investment: foreign assets, by direction and type of investment - Financial year


218 International investment: foreign liabilities, by direction and type of investment - Financial year


219 International investment: foreign debt transactions - Financial year


220 International investment: interest income on foreign debt - Financial year



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE OF PAYMENTS


CURRENT ACCOUNT

The trend estimate of the balance on current account for the June quarter 2006 was a deficit of $13,200m, a decrease of $749m on the deficit recorded for the March quarter 2006 after the trend break correction of $450m - see page 5 for more details. The largest decreases were in:

  • the net goods deficit, down $297m to $3,936m
  • the net services deficit, down $19m (12%) to $137m
  • the net income deficit, down $421m (4%) to $9,035m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the current account deficit fell $392m (3%) to $13,239m between the March quarter 2006 and June quarter 2006 where:
  • the net goods deficit fell $483m (11%) to $3,963m
  • the net services deficit rose $112m (178%) to $175m
  • the net income deficit fell $23m to $9,006m.

Goods and Services

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services at current prices was a deficit of $4,073m, a decrease of $316m on the March quarter 2006 deficit after the trend break correction of $450m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $4,138m, a decrease of $371m (8%) on the March quarter 2006 deficit where:

  • the goods deficit fell $483m (11%) to $3,963m
  • the services deficit rose $112m (178%) to $175m.

The decrease in the goods deficit resulted from higher goods exports, up $2,729m (7%) largely offset by higher goods imports, up $2,246m (5%).


The increase in goods credits was driven by:

  • non-rural goods, up $1,552m (5%)
  • other goods, up $1,186m (43%).

The rural goods category was down $9m.


The increase in goods debits was driven by:

  • intermediate and other merchandise goods, up $1,100m (6%)
  • other goods, up $771m (46%)
  • consumption goods, up $613m (5%).

The capital goods category was down $238m (2%).


The increase in the services deficit resulted from higher services debits, up $127m (1%), partly offset by higher services credits, up $15m.


In seasonally adjusted volume terms, the deficit on goods and services was $9,476m, an increase of $543m (6%) on the $8,933m deficit recorded in the March quarter 2006. The net deficit on goods rose $373m (4%) to $9,145m. Goods debits rose $1,029m (2%) and goods credits rose $656m (2%). The net services balance was a deficit of $331m, an increase of $169m (104%) on the March quarter 2006 deficit of $162m.


The increase of $543m in the deficit on goods and services in volume terms could be expected to contribute -0.2 percentage points to growth in the June quarter 2006 volume measures of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the March quarter 2006.

Goods and Services(a)
Graph: Goods and Services



Goods Credits

The trend estimate of goods credits rose $1,953m to $41,125m in the June quarter 2006 after the trend break correction of $450m.


In seasonally adjusted current price terms, goods credits rose $2,729m (7%) to $41,513m.


Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $9m to $6,422m. The largest decrease was in cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $54m (4%), with volumes down 8% and prices up 4%.


Largely offsetting this decrease were increases in:

  • other rural, up $25m (1%), with volumes up 4% and prices down 3%
  • wool and sheepskins, up $17m (3%), with volumes up 2% and prices up 1%.

Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,552m (5%) to $31,160m, on increased prices. The largest increases were in:
  • metals ores and minerals, up $1,126m (16%), with volumes down 2% and prices up 18%
  • metals (excluding non-monetary gold), up $399m (14%), with volumes down 2% and prices up 16%
  • other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $305m (10%), with volumes up 8% and prices up 2%.

Partly offsetting these increases were falls in:
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $306m (5%), with prices down 5%
  • other mineral fuels, down $33m (1%), with volumes down 1%.

Exports of other goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,186m (43%) to $3,931m, driven by a rise in non-monetary gold, up $1,064m (47%) with volumes up 32% and prices up 11% and by a rise in goods for processing, up $103m (91%), with volumes up 70% and prices up 13%.

General Merchandise Credits(a)
Graph: General Merchandise Credits



Goods Debits

The trend estimate of goods debits rose $1,656m (4%) to $45,061m in the June quarter 2006.


In seasonally adjusted current price terms, goods debits rose $2,246m (5%) to $45,476m.


Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $613m (5%) to $13,187m, on increased volumes. All components increased with the largest increases in:

  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $260 (8%), with volumes up 7% and prices up 1%
  • consumption goods, n.e.s., up $175m (4%), with volumes up 4% and prices up 1%
  • food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $61m (4%), with volumes up 2% and prices up 2%
  • toys, books and leisure goods, up $46m (4%), with volumes up 4% and prices up 1%.

Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $238m (2%) to $10,188m, on reduced volumes. The largest decreases were in:
  • civil aircraft, down $326m, largely on reduced volumes
  • industrial transport equipment, n.e.s., down $126m (9%), with volumes down 8% and prices down 1%
  • ADP equipment, down $102m (6%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 5%.

Offsetting these decreases were rises in:
  • capital goods n.e.s., up $252m (18%), with volumes up 20% and prices down 1%
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $144m (4%), with volumes up 1% and prices up 3%.

Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,100m (6%) to $19,661m, with volumes up 2% and prices up 4%. The largest increases were in:
  • fuels and lubricants, up $767m (14%), with volumes up 1% and prices up 13%
  • other merchandise goods, up $105m (46%), largely on increased volumes
  • other parts for capital goods, up $81m (3%), with volumes up 4% and prices down 1%
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $51m (1%), with volumes down 1% and prices up 3%.

Partly offsetting these increases were falls in:
  • iron and steel, down $23m (3%), with volumes down 6% and prices up 3%
  • textile yarn and fabrics, down $10m (3%), largely on decreased prices.

Imports of other goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $771m (46%) to $2,440m, driven by a rise in non-monetary gold, up $796m (71%), with volumes up 51% and prices up 13%.

General Merchandise Debits(a)
Graph: General Merchandise Debits



Services

The trend estimate of net services was a deficit of $137m (12%), a fall of $19m on the March quarter 2006 deficit of $156m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, net services recorded a deficit of $175m, a rise of $112m (178%) on the March quarter 2006 deficit of $63m.


Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $15m to $9,747m, with volumes down 1% and prices up 1%. The increases were in:

  • transportation services, up $41m (2%) with volumes up 2%, driven by passenger and other transportation services, up $45m (2%) with volumes up 2%
  • travel services, up $16m, with volumes down 1% and prices up 1%.

Partly offsetting these increase was a fall in other services, down $42m (2%), with volumes down 3% and prices up 1%.


Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $127m (1%) to $9,922m on increased volumes. The increases were in:

  • travel services, up $195m (5%), with volumes up 5% and prices up 1%
  • other services, up $6m, with volumes down 1% and prices up 1%.

Partly offsetting these increases was a fall in the transportation services category, down $74m (2%), with volumes down 1% and prices down 1%, driven by freight transportation services, down $97m (5%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 3%.


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $58m (1%) to $6,221m, and seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $217m (4%) to $5,162m.


Implicit Price Deflator

In seasonally adjusted terms, the implicit price deflator (IPD) for total goods and services credits rose 4.2%. In original terms, it rose by 4.4%. The chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services credits rose 4.2%. The IPD for goods credits, in original terms, rose 4.8% and the IPD for services credits rose 0.8%.


The total goods and services debits IPD rose 2.2% in seasonally adjusted terms. In original terms, it rose by 2.0%. The chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services debits rose 2.1%.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR(a), Seasonally Adjusted
Graph: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR sted



Relationship to IPI and EPI

In original terms, the implicit price deflator for total goods credits rose 4.8% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports rose 5.0%. The export price index (EPI) rose 3.6% during the June quarter 2006.


In original terms, the implicit price deflator for total goods debits rose 2.3% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports rose 2.6%. The import price index (IPI) rose 2.3% during the June quarter 2006.


Terms of trade

Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade rose 1.9% to 113.1, with an increase of 4.2% in the IPD for goods and services credits and a 2.2% increase in the goods and services debits IPD. The trend estimate of the terms of trade increased 1.8% to 113.4.


Income

The trend estimate of the net income deficit fell $421m (4%) to $9,035m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the net income deficit fell $23m to $9,006m. Income credits rose $1,222m (19%) to $7,704m and income debits rose $1,199m (8%) to $16,710m.


In original terms, the net income deficit fell $608m (7%) to $8,481m. Income credits rose $1,543m (24%) to $7,929m and income debits rose $935m (6%) to $16,410m.

Net Income
Graph: Net Income



Current Transfers

In seasonally adjusted terms, the net current transfers deficit was $95m, an increase of $2m (2%) on the $93m deficit recorded in the March quarter 2006. Current transfer credits rose $2m and current transfer debits rose $4m.



CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

Capital Account

In original terms, the capital account surplus was $241m, down $49m on the March quarter 2006 surplus. Capital transfer credits fell $93m (13%) to $603m and capital transfer debits fell $45m (11%) to $361m.


Financial Account

In original terms, the balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $12.0b, with a $15.8b inflow of debt and a $3.8b outflow of equity.


Direct investment in Australia recorded an inflow of $5.8b in June quarter 2006, an increase of $4.1b on the March quarter 2006 inflow of $1.7b. Australia's direct investment abroad recorded an outflow of $4.6b, a decrease of $0.2b on the previous quarter's outflow of $4.8b. In net terms, direct investment recorded an inflow of $1.2b, a turnaround of $4.4b on last quarter's outflow of $3.1b.


Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $18.7b, an increase of $0.2b on the net inflow of $18.6b in March quarter 2006. This was driven mainly by continued strong net issuance of debt securities.


Other investment recorded a net outflow of $5.9b, an increase of $5.4b on the net outflow of $0.5b in the previous quarter.


Reserve assets recorded a net outflow of $2.8b, an increase of $1.3b on the previous quarter's net outflow of $1.5b.



INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION


INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT

Australia's net international investment position at 30 June 2006 was a net foreign liability of $540.9b, up $7.8b (1.5%) on 31 March 2006. The increase consisted of:

  • net transactions of $12.0b;
  • price changes of -$9.4b;
  • exchange rate changes of $5.6b; and
  • other adjustments of -$0.4b.

During the June quarter 2006, the net debt liability increased by $9.9b (2.1%) to $493.8b. Net debt raisings of $15.8b were slightly offset by market price changes of -$3.8b and exchange rate changes of -$1.2b.


During the June quarter 2006, net equity liabilities fell $2.2b (4.4%) to close at $47.0b. The major contributors to this decrease were market price changes of -$5.6b and net transactions of -$3.8b, partially offset by exchange rate changes of $6.8b.



FINANCIAL YEAR: 2005-06 SITUATION


BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

In original terms, the balance on current account for 2005-06 was a deficit of $54.4b, a 5% decrease on the deficit of $57.4b recorded for 2004-05. The balance on goods and services deficit was $16.5b, a decrease of $8.0b on the deficit of $24.5b recorded in 2004-05. Goods exports increased $26.0b or 20% (due largely to increase in prices) and goods imports increased $18.9b or 13% (due to an increase in both volumes and prices).


The 2005-06 services deficit was $0.7b, a decrease of $0.8b on the deficit of $1.5b in 2004-05.


The 2005-06 net income deficit rose $5.0b (15%), with an increase in income credits of $4.0b (19%) and an increase in income debits of $9.0b (17%).


The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $53.4b, with a net inflow on debt of $68.2b and a net outflow on equity of $14.7b. This result was down $0.1b on the net inflow recorded for the previous year as a result of:

  • an increase of $60.7b on the net inflow on portfolio investment;
  • a turnaround of $52.4b to a net outflow on direct investment;
  • a decrease of $7.5b on the net inflow on other investment;
  • a turnaround of $3.4b to a net outflow on financial derivatives; and
  • a decrease of $2.5b on the net outflow on reserve assets.


INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION

Australia's net international investment position as at 30 June 2006 was a net foreign liability of $540.9b. This was up $37.1b (7%) on the position a year earlier as a result of:
  • net transactions of $53.4b;
  • price changes of -$19.8b;
  • exchange rate changes of $5.4b; and
  • other adjustments of -$1.9b.

During 2005-06, the level of net equity liabilities decreased to $47.0b, down $24.8b (34%) on the previous year, with transactions of -$14.7b, price changes of -$6.3b and exchange rate changes of -$4.4b partially offset by other changes of $0.7b.


Net foreign debt rose to $493.8b, up $61.9b (14%) on the previous year, with transactions of $68.2b and exchange rate changes of $9.8b being partially offset by price changes of -$13.5b and other adjustments of -$2.6b.


At 30 June 2006, the ratio of Australia's net international position to GDP using the latest available GDP figure (for the year ended 31 March 2006 using current prices) was 57.2%. This compares with 56.4% one year ago and 53.1% one decade ago.


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