MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2016 (677,000 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with April 2016 (672,500 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 10.9% higher than in May 2015.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for May 2015 and May 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for South Korea (30.8%), followed by Japan (30.6%), and Singapore (23.9%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for New Zealand (-1.2%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - May 2016
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Apr '16 to May '16	May '15 to May '16
Country of Residence(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	108.4	109.9	104.9	-0.0	-1.2
China	99.4	100.8	71.4	0.6	18.6
United States of America	58.1	58.2	46.3	1.0	18.4
Malaysia	31.8	32.1	37.9	1.4	13.5
Singapore	39.6	40.0	36.3	3.0	23.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	58.4	58.2	29.8	-0.4	1.9
India	21.2	21.6	27.4	1.5	11.1
Japan	35.1	34.1	23.0	1.1	30.6
Korea, South	23.3	22.5	19.2	-0.5	30.8
Hong Kong	19.7	19.9	14.1	0.2	6.9
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The June 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than May 2016.
2 The June 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than May 2016.

The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during May 2016 (809,100 movements) decreased 0.1% when compared with April 2016 (809,800 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.4% higher than in May 2015.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in May 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for May 2015 and May 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (27.9%), followed by Indonesia (16.3%), and the United Kingdom (4.9%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Fiji (-6.1%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - May 2016
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Apr '16 to May '16	May '15 to May '16
Country of Stay(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
Indonesia	108.0	108.5	109.1	1.3	16.3
United States of America	85.1	83.2	85.5	-0.5	2.7
New Zealand	105.1	106.4	70.6	-1.2	-0.6
UK, CIs & IOM	49.3	48.6	65.5	-0.3	4.9
Thailand	45.7	45.9	40.1	1.2	-1.9
China	37.0	35.5	35.0	-0.5	1.6
Fiji	26.9	27.9	26.5	-1.8	-6.1
Singapore	30.4	29.5	24.1	-0.0	1.5
Japan	30.7	31.4	23.8	1.1	27.9
Italy	15.2	15.5	23.2	-0.2	-2.7
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The June 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than May 2016.
2 The June 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than May 2016.

The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,550 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2016, a decrease of 2.7% compared with April 2015 (11,870 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (17.3%), followed by people born in China (11.8%), and people born in New Zealand (8.1%).

There were 6,680 people who stated they were Australian residents and their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during May 2016, an increase of 1.6% compared with May 2015 (6,570 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.