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3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/11/2005  Reissue
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INTRODUCTION

1 This publication contains projections of Australia's population by age and sex for the period 2004-2101, and projections of the states, territories and capital cities/balances of state for the period 2004-2051. Capital city/balance of state projections were not generated for the Australian Capital Territory.


2 Three main series of projections have been presented in this publication. These series have been selected to provide a range, although not the full range, of projections for analysis and discussion.


3 These projections supersede the 2002-based series, published in Population Projections, Australia, 2002-2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) in September 2003.


4 The projections for Australia include Other Territories comprising, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Jervis Bay Territory.



OBJECTIVES

5 The ABS currently publishes population projections every two to three years in order to regularly service the needs of users of population projections.


6 The projections are not intended as predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period.


7 While the assumptions for the projections are formulated on the basis of an assessment of past demographic trends, both in Australia and overseas, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will or will not be realised. In addition, no assessment has been made of changes in non-demographic conditions.


8 Accordingly, alternative projections have been provided in recognition of this uncertainty and to provide users with a range of options.



DEVELOPMENT

9 The process of developing population projections involves research, analysis, consultation and computation. Analysis of demographic trends, research into the determinants of population growth and distribution, and consultation with government agencies at both national and state levels are necessary to formulate the various assumptions and to ensure their general relevance for the projection period.


10 Consultation occurred from August to October 2005, following which assumptions for the population projections were finalised. For fertility three assumptions were selected. Two assumptions were used for mortality, three assumptions were used overseas migration and three assumptions were used for internal migration. In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the impact of overseas migration to Australia.



PROJECTION TECHNIQUES

11 There are many techniques which may be used for population projections, ranging from simple extrapolations through broad economic, social and time-series analysis to detailed component methods. The ABS uses the cohort-component method, which begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period for each state and territory and for Australia, as well as each capital city/balance of state in each state and territory. The resulting population projections for each year for the states and territories, by sex and single year of age, are adjusted to sum to the Australian results. Likewise, capital city/balance of state projections are adjusted to sum to their respective state/territory projections.



ASSUMPTIONS

12 Assumptions regarding future levels of fertility, mortality and migration used to produce the population projections, and how they were formulated, are discussed in Chapter 2 - Assumptions.



REVIEW OF NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION METHODS

13 The ABS is currently undertaking a review of methods for estimating net overseas migration. Until the completion of this review an interim method of adjusting these components, known as migration adjustment, has been applied to NOM estimates for the years ending June 2002 to June 2004. Further information will be available in the forthcoming ABS Information Paper - Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration (cat. no. 3107.0.55.003), expected to be released on 10 February 2006. Information about the interim method is provided in Demography Working Paper 2003/5 - Net Overseas Migration: Adjusting for Actual Duration of Stay or Absence available from the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> by selecting Themes > Demography > ABS Demography Working Papers.



ACKNOWLEDGMENT

14 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated; without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.



RELATED PUBLICATION AND REFERENCES

15 Users may also wish to refer to the following ABS electronic data and publications:

      AusStats - electronic data, ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au>
      Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) - issued quarterly
      Australian Demographic Trends (cat. no. 3102.0) - issued irregularly
      Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0) - issued annually
      Causes of Death, Australia (cat. no. 3303.0) - issued annually
      Deaths, Australia (cat. no. 3302.0) - issued annually
      Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, Statistical Concepts Library, ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au>
      Experimental Projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population (cat. no. 3231.0) - issued irregularly
      Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2001 to 2026 (cat. no. 3236.0) - issued irregularly
      Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) - issued annually
      Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) - issued monthly
      Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories (cat. no. 3201.0) - issued annually

16 Current publications and other products released by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products (cat. no. 1101.0). The Catalogue is available from any ABS office. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the web site which details products to be released in the week ahead.


17 As well as the statistics included in this and related publications, additional information is available from the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au> and accessing the ABS Demography theme page by selecting Themes > Demography.



ADDITIONAL STATISTICS AVAILABLE

18 More detailed information for the three main series presented in this publication can be obtained free of charge from the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> by selecting AusStats > Publications and Data > Data Cubes > by Catalogue/Subject, and then selecting 32. Population trends and estimates, 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia. Data cubes provided are:

      Population Projections for Australia, 2004-2101 - in SuperTABLE format
      Population Projections by Capital City/Balance of State, 2004-2051 - in SuperTABLE format
      Projected Population, Components of Change and Summary Statistics, for Australia, States and Territories, Capital Cities and Balances of State - in Microsoft Excel format

19 Population projections are also available in Time Series Spreadsheet format from the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> by selecting AusStats > Publications and Data > Time Series Spreadsheets > by Catalogue/Subject, and then selecting 32. Population trends and estimates, 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia.


20 Detailed information for the remaining series can be made available on request by contacting the National Information and Referral Service. A charge is usually incurred for providing this data. The ABS is also able to produce customised projections to meet specific requirements.


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