5629.0 - Inventories and Sales, Selected Industries, Australia, Sep 2001  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/12/2001   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The examples in the tables below show two scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of inventories owned by private businesses and Manufacturing and Wholesale trade sales.

1 The December quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of chain volume measures is higher than the September quarter estimate by the percentage shown.

2 The December quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of chain volume measures is lower than the September quarter estimate by the percentage shown.


INVENTORIES

TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:


Graph - Inventories
12
rises by 1.1 on Sep 2001
falls by 1.1 on Sep 2001
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2000
December
88,057
0.8
88,057
0.8
88,057
0.8
2001
March
88,146
0.1
88,138
0.1
88,252
0.2
June
87,935
-0.2
87,950
-0.2
87,911
-0.4
September
87,724
-0.2
88,079
0.1
87,534
-0.4
December
-
-
88,456
0.4
87,136
-0.5


MANUFACTURING SALES
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:


Graph - Manufacturing sales
12
rises by 1.2 on Sep 2001
falls by 1.2 on Sep 2001
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2000
December
60,412
-0.7
60,412
-0.7
60,412
-0.7
2001
March
60,550
0.2
60,479
0.1
60,566
0.3
June
61,090
0.9
61,108
1
61,078
0.8
September
61,801
1.2
61,901
1.3
61,482
0.7
December
-
-
62,648
1.2
61,652
0.3


WHOLESALE TRADE SALES

TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:


Graph - Wholesale trade sales
12
rises by 2.3. on Sep 2001
falls by 2.3 on Sep 2001
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2000
December
53,609
-1.3
53,609
-1.3
53,609
-1.3
2001
March
53,757
0.3
53,620
0
53,770
0.3
June
54,563
1.5
54,596
1.8
54,544
1.4
September
55,616
1.9
55,819
2.2
55,093
1
December
-
-
56,961
2
55,239
0.3