Australian Bureau of Statistics
3228.0 - Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 1999
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/1999
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A2.1. The accuracy of ABS quarterly population estimates depends in part on the accuracy of estimates of births and deaths which are based on registrations of births and deaths.
Preliminary estimates of births and deaths
A2.3. Each quarter, preliminary estimates of birth and death occurrences are estimated directly as the number of births and deaths registered in the reference period.
Revised estimates of births and deaths
A2.5. Revised estimates of quarterly birth and death occurrences are estimated by applying an inflation factor to births and death registration data.
A2.6. There are two types of registration delays, or lags, that we can measure for births and deaths in a given period. The historical lag, is the delay between births registered in the relevant period and their date of occurrence (ie. looks into the past such as in tables 1 and 2 ). Conversely, a future lag is the delay between births occurring in the target period and their (eventual) date of registration (ie. it looks into the future).
Revised estimates: estimating occurrences not yet registered
A2.8. To determine the revised estimate for a particular period, the occurrence data that will be subject to inflation needs to be determined. To enable publication by 15 months after the financial year involved, registration data for the 9 months after the end of the financial year are available. For example, to publish in September 1998, only registrations up to and including the March quarter 1998 were available for births and deaths which occurred in the 1996-97 financial year. This corresponds to 7 quarters (June Quarter 1996 to March Quarter 1998) in which births occurring in the 1996-97 financial year could have been registered. Thus, when inflating September Quarter 1996 data, occurrence data with a future registration lag of less than or equal to 7 quarters are available.
The inflation factor, f, for the quarter can be calculated such that:
A2.12. The estimate is calculated by applying the inflation factor to the count of births/deaths on file, such that:
A2.13. This method is detailed further in Demography Working Paper 98/2 Quarterly Birth and Death Estimates which is available through the ABS web site.
This page last updated 12 March 2007
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